Study On Shipper-Owned-Fleet Planning For Coastal Coal Enterprises Under Uncertainty

In this paper,the problem of shipper-owned-fleet planning for coastal coal enterprises under uncertainty is studied.Over the past 10 years,the domestic economy continued to develop well,with a sustained upward trend of coal consumption,and led to the coal sales and transport volume rising.In response to growing demand for transport,some coal enterprises invest in the formation of their bulk fleet,in order to lock the transportation costs and improve the industrial chain.For coal enterprises,how to plan their fleet to maintain adequate transport capacity and lower operating costs is an important issue.Modern ship is expensive,the investment recovery period is long,and the fleet size is too large or too small will have an impact on the transport costs and service quality.In addition,ship's service life and the technical level will also affect the freight costs.At the same time,the coastal coal transportation market is a market full of changes with uncertainty,it is difficult to accurately predict the changing parameters,and the current research on fleet planning is basically based on deterministic environment,Considering uncertainties in decision-making will provide better protection for the development of the owner's fleet.In this paper,a multi-stage stochastic programming model for shipper-owned-fleet planning decision for coastal coal enterprises under uncertainty is proposed.Taking a shipper-owned-fleet at a certain time as the object of study,considering various uncertainties in the shipping market.Finally,the simulation results are compared with the results of the deterministic model.The results show that the multi-stage stochastic programming model can get a better result,and has a certain Anti-risk,can effectively reduce the risk of enterprise fleet planning.