Intelligent Engineering And Its Application On Analyzing And Early-Warning Of Power Demand-Supply

Because power demand-supply is influenced by a large amount of factors, the forecasting and early-warning of power demand-supply are complex system problems.Hence,it is of significance for theory and practice research on the problem. This dissertation focuses on the research on theory for solving the complex system problem,methodology of policy simulation,forecasting methodology of power demand and early-warning of power demand-supply.The main contents are as follows.Intelligent engineering is theory and methodology for solving complex system problem.In this dissertation,generalized model including knowledge model, mathematical model,structural model and intelligent agent model is established.Theα-optimized solution is redefined,andβ-optimized object,β-optimized object solution,(α,β)-satisfied solution and object reachability are proposed.Some theorems are proved.Electricity demand is influenced by many complex factors.In this dissertation,the factors are analyzed by using knowledge model and structural model,and the hierarchical relationships of the factors are established based on interpretative structural modeling(ISM).Surface,shallow and deep reasons of influencing electricity demand are found out.For analyzing effect of pricing and macroeconomic policy,RECMAS and ECMAS simulation platform are designed based on Complex Adaptive System.By using RECMAS,six policy scenarios are analyzed,the results show that public campaign programming and suitable pricing policies can guide people to build up the awareness of saving and improve the using-electricity efficiency.By using ECMAS,the effect of resident consumption and government expenditure on electricity demand is analyzed.Forecasting power demand is the basis of early-warning of power demand-supply. First,system dynamics model is established and intelligent forecasting system based on agent is designed for forecasting mid-and-long power demand.Second,early-warning indexes are given,and early-warning method of power demand-supply is proposed based on intelligent engineering methodology.As a result,intelligent path of power capacity is recommended from 2008 to 2010 in China.