Research On The Assessment Of Disaster-Carrying Capability And Disaster Comprehensive Risk In Urban Place

The urban is getting more and more central and important to international society disaster defense and reduction as a huge disaster bearing body. The diversity of frequent urban disaster as well as the severity of lost and damage have threatened to the development of urban economic society. The integrative capability of disaster prevention, defense, salvation and resilience directly reflected on the base and capability of urban sustainable development. The reasonable assessment and management of urban natural disaster were the best way of people completing disaster mitigation.The thesis focuses on some key technology of assessment of urban disaster-carrying capability and risk analysis and the following aspects are devoted to the main effects:(1) The city systematic functionality is analyzed from the sight of disaster carrying body. The performance and functional affection of urban society sub-system, economic sub-system and environment sub-system after disaster are analyzed as well as the important factors inside.(2) Based on the analysis of functionality of urban disaster carrying body, the comprehensive disaster carrying capability in urban place is discussed with the result that the capability is constituted of disaster prevention, disaster defense, disaster salvation and resilience. The index system of urban disaster carrying capability assessment is found with the addition of environment factors which are always ignored. The disaster carrying capability of twenty-nine major cities are compared with each other and we get the conclusion that they are all a little low after fuzzy estimation so that they need to be improved with strenghthing the integrated disaster carrying capability.(3) Based on the risk analysis, a concept named " net proportionality" is raise up to model the calculation of net proportionality. After considering synthetically nod structural importance and functional importance for estimating the integrated importance of net nod, the net proportionality of an example is calculated based on entropy theory. The result is the same as the present one. The process of calculation showes that the method is simple avoiding the complex mathematic calculation of connecting reliability for network estimation. It also resolves the imprecise problem of using the economic index to do estimation of disaster defense of urban lifeline before.(4) The coupling associate matrix of lifeline multi-functional system is set up for quantifying the coupling relationship. The interaction of destroying and resilience after disaster caused by sub-systems on structural and functional association are judged through the crisp associating analysis of lifeline multi-functional coupling system. The disaster defense of urban lifeline system is estimated as a whole and the association under disaster from strong to weak is: communication system, electric power system, transport system, gas system and water system. The result showes that the affection of communication system to other systems is the most if its functionality was destroyed under disaster, and the water system would be affected whatever which system destroyed.(5) The estimating model of urban disaster comprehensive risk is set up. The paper takes the urban integrated disaster risk as an uncertain and complex system containing hazards and vulnerability, modeles the risk assessment with the set pair analysis approach after ensuring the certain or uncertain factors and ensures the weight using project pursuit approach which is an objective dimension-decreasing method good for reducing the complexity of the risk analysis. The improved genetic algorithm is used to solve the optimize problem with restriction to get an satisfying result of dimension-decrease. The objective quantify method of otherness coefficient in set pair affiliation is paid more attention. Its deflection is used in the calculation of risk uncertainty for getting the threshold of risk and the uncertainty value further. The dynamic risk in Dalian is analyzed and the trend is forecasted using this method as well as the result that the probability of expectation loss of risk in Dalian is 50.77%. This approach resolved the problem that much more history disaster data or samples data is need for disaster risk analysis.(6) The assessing approach of "blown-up" risk of urban disaster carrying system is developed. The crisp entropy of urban disaster carrying system is calculated for judging our control capability. Taking the use of mutation theory in the calculation of crisp entropy, the problem of crisp probability of crisp gene is solved. Mean time, during the crisp analysis of urban disaster system, the relative probability of each kind of disaster also could be gotten for providing the reason of pertinence disaster prevention and mitigation work. The crisp risk entropy of urban disaster in Dalian is calculated to get the developing trend of "blown-up" risk of urban disaster which presentes that our control of urban after disaster would getting weaker according with the developing rule of citifying.(7) The human resource management is presented from the sight of disaster organization structure. A concept model of organization structure optimization is set up after using a present approach for the analysis of the disaster organization management of Shanghai and Los Angeles.(8) Modeles an emergency management information system. A point is presented that the aim of setting up emergency management information system is assisting the quick reaction to the situation of a disaster instead of forecasting and estimating. The software SuperMap is used to develop some function of an emergency management information system after the effect and real work of urban disaster emergency management is analyzed.(9) A point of managing financial resource from the sight of coordination management is presented as well as the analysis of coordination between disaster prevention and mitigation investment and economic development. Combining the grey association and grey forecast model, the coordination in Dalian is analyzed. After supposing argumentation, the reason of un-coordination between urban disaster carrying capability and development proved is the hysteresis of disaster carrying capability. And the developing trends are also judged by classic Daniel function.