Research On The Analysis Of Ice Slush Feature And The Prediction Model Of Ice-conditions Information In Inner Mongolia Reach Of The Yellow River

Yellow River is magnificent and long history. The flood and drought disaster of Yellow River is famous, like her contribution to the Five-thousand years Chinese civilization. The same as of summer flood, ice flood of Yellow River causes more disasters, and it prevents more difficultly. The reach of Yellow River in Inner Mongolia is one of major ice flood section and almost causes disasters every year. So, the ice slush researches about Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River have important significance for keeping out ice flood disasters.Based on the many years experience of preventing ice flood in Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River, author have not only analyzed systemicly the ice condition history datum of Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River, but also researched the characteristic and change pattern of ice slush. Moreover, author attempt to finding and discussing a new way for predicting the ice conditions of Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River.Firstly, the ice slush characteristics of Yellow River Inner Mongolia reach are analyzed from history datum. The ice slush is decided to the geographical position, hydrographical meteorology, river way property and human activities. Secondly, by applying the Wavelet Analysis to time series datum of ice conditions, for ex-ample air temperature, flow rate and ice date, the variety property in time scale are presented. Based on mathematical statistics, the autocorrelation property of the ice condition information are analyzed. The correlation property between ice condi-tion information and hydrographical meteorology factors are presented. This part is basis of prediction model for ice condition information. Thirdly, The artificial neural network models, the improved Genetic algorithm models and the mathe-matical model based on change mechanism of ice slush are constructed for pre-dicting the ice conditions of Yellow River Inner Mongolia reach. The predicting effects of these models are assessed. Fouthly, the ice slush disasters of Yellow River Inner Mongolia reach are overviewed. The current situation and major questions of Yellow River Inner Mongolia reach are demonstrated. The engineer-ing measures and non-structural measures of ice disaster control are puts forward for synthesized management of Yellow River Inner Mongolia reach.At the end of the papers, author summarizes the research contents and the achievements and discusses the problem existing in the study process.