Study On The Emergency Rescue Decision Support System Of Thermal Power Plant

The power industry is the most important basis energy industry for national economic development. It plays an important role to promote national economics'development and social progress.It's one of the industries that many countries' economic development strategy priority to develop.The demand for electricity is growing as China's economic development. China's power generation equipment capacity reaches 874.07 million kilowatts at the end of 2009,in which there are about 652.05 million kilowatts of thermal power, accounting for a total capacity of 74.60%.Thermal power is the first electric power, and it plays a decisive role in the power energy structure for it's total capacity. The rising demand for electricity increased the pressure of China's thermal power plants.Thermal power enterprises have become an important guarantee for the maintenance of social stability, solidarity, and the economics'rapid development.The thermal power plant has many electrical equipments, many high temperature and high pressure equipments,many flammable, explosive and toxic substances, many high-speed rotating machineries, many special operations, many dangerous and hazardous factors and many risk sources, which can lead to all kinds of accidents, such as:cable fire, steam engine oil system fire, fuel tank farm and boiler oil system fire,hydrogen system explosion fire, milling system fire, coal conveyer belt fire,pressure vessel and boiler explosion, hydrogen tank explosion, milling system and dust explosion accidents, storage tank leaking, fire and explosion accidents, turbine speeding and shaft fracture,turbine shaft bending, bearing burning accidents,large transformer damage and explosions, ash dam dam-break accident, flooded plant and plant collapse accidents and so on.The production safety accidents of thermal power plant not only can cause the consequences of equipment damage, equipments are forced to stop running and blackout, it also can cause serious casualties,and even affect the power grid, leading to adverse events for social unrest disasters.Therefore, emergency management and emergency rescue is very important to the thermal power plant's safety.Thermal power plant production system is a complex giant system, it requires a high level for the stable operation of the equipment, safe maintenance, information technology for monitoring, controlling and information management. The traditional Management Information System (MIS) that used in data analysis, rational organization and information management can not dig a deeper internal rules of information for decision-making, it also lacks the capabilities of detecting the power generating equipment's running status and decision-making of emergency response and rescue for emergency, so it can not fully meet the safe operation requirements of modern thermal power plants.Emergency decision is important for accidents rescue. Accurate and efficient decision-making is a prerequisite to ensure the effectiveness of emergency rescue.Therefore, to carry out research and develop on emergency rescue decision support system of the thermal power plant has an important theoretical and practical significance both for improving electrical safety emergency response decision-making theory and improving the efficiency and capabilities of emergency rescue decision-making, reducing casualties and property losses of thermal power plant enterprise accidents.Although the emergency management and emergency rescue is concerned in recent years, but it developed late compared to other subjects.The study is imperfect in accident emergency rescue management systems, dynamic evolution model of the accident, theoretical model of emergency rescue operations and emergency rescue decision support system's function, etc.So, this paper decided to research on the following content:â‘ the study and establishment of emergency rescue management system,â‘¡researching on dynamic evolution model of the accident,â‘¢researching on theoretical model of emergency rescue operations,â‘£designing and developing emergency rescue decision support system of thermal power plant based on simulation technology. The paper carried out systematic research and achieved the following main conclusions and results by collecting and studying a large number of domestic and foreign literatures, and using research methods of field studies, theoretical and empirical research, design research based on a thermal power plant of China HuaDian Group's background information.1.On the basis of the analysis of existing emergency management system and the weaknesses of the traditional emergency management system, the paper brings up the new emergency management system, taking the cybernetics, the information theory and the system theory as the rationale, referencing the thought of EMS and OHSMS.The new emergency management system consists of normal-state emergency management cycle and war-state emergency management cycle.Normal-state emergency management cycle and war-state emergency management cycle unites by common elements (including accident prevention, emergency planning and preparedness, and emergency surveillance and monitoring, emergency management and evaluation).Therefore,the normal-state emergency management runs without interruption through the coupling of normal-state emergency management cycle and war-state emergency management cycle. The level of Enterprise emergency Progress.According to the actual situation in power plants of China HuaDian Corporation, the paper builds a new power plant emergency management system, and analyzes and designs its functions.It sets up power plant emergency rescue system, which consists of management policy and goals, emergency planning and preparation, accident prevention and early warning, emergency response and operations and emergency management review. It analyzes the functions of the emergency rescue system, designs the operation mechanism of power plant emergency rescue system, designs and analyzes accident prevention and early warning, emergency response and management interface, analyzes the content which was evaluated.2.By analyzing hazardous and harmful factors and major dangerous source in the thermal power plant poses a danger of harmful factors and the major hazards, the paper explores the dynamic evolution mechanism of the accident. It analyzes three kinds of evolutionary model which is being researched, that is, Domino (Domino) effect model,the energy release model and dynamic model.And it discusses their nature, mechanism, characteristics,mathematical models and the existing deficiencies.On this basis, the paper proposes a new accident gradient effect dynamic evolution model, and establish a dangerous variable field, which is a function of space and time,reaches the mathematical discriminant of the dynamic evolutionary model which consists of the gradient discriminant, energy field transfer function and injury (or damage) tolerance threshold discriminant.Analysis shows that the accident gradient effect dynamic evolution model combines the features of the accident dynamic evolution model,the energy release evolution model and domino effect accidents Evolution Model and it fully reveals the essential characteristics of the accident dynamic evolution model.3.Analyzing the basic model accident risk, the paper systematically studies and discusses the spatial distribution of the accident risk in thermal power plant. According to the model of accident extent, the level of risk is divided on power plant. The paper discusses the analysis method of factory space risk field the risks superposition, finds the defect for the independent algebra and Risk stacking method, raises a new method for solving risk filed superposition using the energy superposition, and gives the specific methods and steps. Taking the simulation of leak and diffusion about liquid ammonia in Changsha thermal power plants for an example, the paper discusses the simulation of accident dynamic evolution model,analyzes the technology and process of dynamic evolution simulation and write the simulation program.Finally, the paper gives the simulation results of the simulation of leak and diffusion about liquid ammonia, which can be provided for emergency decision makers with an intuitive decision.4.The paper analyzes the establishment of thermal power plant emergency rescue models systematically, including rescue ability analysis model, occupant evacuation model,dynamic rescue assessment model and rescue resources allocation model,which provided theoretical base for scientific rescue decision. Use for reference of Lanchester combat theory and taking thermal power plants of light diesel oil storage tank leak pool fire incident as an example, the paper systematically discusses the establishment of extinguishing force analysis model in emergency rescue;Through a series of analytical model deduction, it obtains accident strength natural linear attenuation equation, accident strength relieving linear attenuation equation and accident strength linear attenuation with fuels supplementary equation, single storage tank leak pool fire incident nonlinear attenuation equation and double storage tank rupture pool fire incident nonlinear attenuation equation the corresponding variation curves are got as well,that not only offers the effective theoretical model for emergency rescue decision support system of thermal power plant, but provides beneficial guidance for accident emergency rescue decision theoretical research and practical emergency command.Based on the character analysis of emergency rescue occupant evacuation time model, social mechanics model, ant colony algorithm model and cellular automation model, the paper discuss and builds the cellular occupant evacuation automation model.Different from the existing cellular automation model and combing with the character of thermal power plant and the theoretical framework of cellular automation model,the model proposed by the paper takes the influence of occupant evacuation into consideration, and the influence is caused by the risk field change of thermal power plant accidents dynamic evolution.After the establishment of place spatial modeling, human motion neighbor model and occupant evacuation walking criterion model, the criterion expression for the cellular occupant evacuation automation model is deduced.The emergency rescue progress dynamic evaluation and rescue resources allocation are studied in the paper, first, it designs a dynamic assessment command system for thermal power plant accident severity initial evaluation and rescue efficiency dynamic estimation, furthermore, a multi-stage fuzzy comprehensive judgment for thermal power plant emergency rescue is given; for the requirement of transportation cost minimization and transportation time minimum, the emergency rescue materials allocation mathematical model and constraint function are proposed.5.The constitution of decision-making system and decision support system is analyzed in this paper, which provides theoretical basis for the establishment of thermal power plant decision-making system.A new emergency management system constitution is proposed in this paper, combing with the character and general constitution of emergency decision, thermal power plant emergency decision-making system and emergency decision support system system architecture are given, then, it designs the overall structure of emergency rescue decision support system for thermal power plant (EPPEDSS).The system is composed by four subsystems of emergency command center, scene monitor system, alarming system and network system,Based on Hybrid Mode of Intranet/Internet, C/S and B/S model,its main operation flow is the closed-loop feedback of normal emergency management, precaution analysis and emergency rescue command. Therefore, the system is composed by five models that are emergency information management, normal emergency management, emergency start, emergency response and emergency assessment.6.The paper systematically discusses the core design of EPPEDSS,containing man-machine interaction system, model base system and data base system.The man-machine interaction system is based VRP-SDK 3D virtual reality engine platform, which melts the simulation technology, three-dimensional interaction technology, physical simulation, network technology and data base technology, with the feature of highly extensible, flexibility and better interaction. The whole EPPEDSS can be divided into program layer, solution layer, task layer, model layer and data layer, the core design of decision interactive level is the design of program layer, solution layer and task layer. Model base design includes virtual physical model base design, conception model base design and mathematics model design, among them, virtual physical model base is constructed by 3D software, conception model base design adopt object-oriented method and ontology method;the mathematics model design is realized through object-oriented method.7.On the background of a thermal power plant of China HuaDian Corporation,the paper using C#,VC++,Visual Basic.net,OPENGL,Matlab and other programming languages develops EPPEDSS system based on VRP-SDK virtual simulation development platform and Microsoft SQL Server 2005 database platform.The system that is composed of an emergency drill platform,a monitoring and early warning platform and a rescue command decision platform realizes basic normal emergency management and rescue decision analysis in the state of emergency.The effect of emergency plan drill has been greatly heightened by the emergency drill platform through the control of the exercise scenario objects.It is realized by the VRP-SDK,Plug-ins,and the direct editing and input and output interface functions of VRP editor.Rescue command decision platform using physical engine design and granule technology enables emergency rescue virtual scene with the characteristics of a physical scene and the physical model with dynamic characteristics.Decision makers can clearly observe the process of accident rescue and the change of physical models in the accident scene,like wind,object deformation,destruction,explosion and fire.Visuality and validity of process of accident emergency rescue decision have been enhanced through combination of virtual simulation technology and decision theory.The principal innovation of this study is reflected in the following points:(1)Not only a new emergency rescue management system has been proposed,but also a thermal power plant emergency management system has been established according to the new theory.The paper discusses the composition,function and operation mechanism of each module.(2) The paper proposes a new dynamic evolutionary model of the accident gradient effect and its discriminant, advances specific methodology and procedure to solve the risk of superimposed utilizing energy superposition method on the based of the new proposed way for solving the superimposed risk and the new discriminant.(3)The paper first systematically discusses and builds fighting and rescue strength analysis model of emergency rescue,besides, the attenuation formula of accident intensity has been deduced.The cellular occupant evacuation automation model has been discussed and established considering the influence of occupant evacuation which is caused by the risk field change of thermal power plant accidents dynamic evolution.Furthermore,multi-stage fuzzy comprehensive judgment for thermal power plant emergency rescue has been established.(4) Combining virtual simulation technology and decision theory, the author designs and develops the Thermal Power Plant Emergency Rescue Decision Support System (EPPEDSS) software that has the function of virtual simulation, so the decisions support system more intuitive and effective.