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Involving Regularities In Recent 50 Years And Future Trends In 2020 On Farming System In China

Posted on:2005-02-01Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:L J LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:1103360122988872Subject:Crop Cultivation and Farming System
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
According to statistics data, typical investigation, experts advices, applying GIS techniques, county level database including 3000 counties and total 5 million pieces data are established, and according above research, historical involving regulations in 1949-2001 and future trends in 2020 on farming system are analyzed, such as crop zoning, multiple cropping, inter-planting, mixed-planting, crop rotation, soil tillage, etc. In this paper, food consumption including calories, protein, fat and cereals per capita in 1961-2001 are analyzed, through compared with USA and Japan and different countries in world, food demand in China in 2020 are forecasted. Based on the involving regulation and food demand trends, strategies and techniques focus on narrowing yield gaps and gaining higher-yield on farming system in 2020 are put forward.1. Gradual progress on farming system in recent half century. (1) Aral land tends to decrease, task of increasing on crop production became harder. (2) Crop zoning tends to stabilize, and scientific and localized crop production areas come into being. Rice, wheat and maize production have become great proportions in total crop production in China, ratio is from 63.18% in 1950 to 85.24% in 2001. Rice production drop slightly, wheat and maize production increased one times and one and a half times in 50 years, respectively. Soybean and potatoes production decreased 50%, respectively, and the other crops production decreased 4/5 in 50 years. It showed through analysis in regional and county level, rice planting areas are mainly in Middle and lower areas of Changjiang River, Southeast of China and South of China, sowing areas and ratio of total sowing areas in those areas are still in 60-70%; Wheat planting areas are mainly in Huanghuaihai areas and its sowing areas ratio of total sowing areas are around 50%; Maize planting areas are mainly in Northeast of China and Huanghuaihai areas, and their sowing areas ratio of total sowing areas are both around 40%; Soybean planting areas are mainly in Northeast of China, sowing areas ratio of total sowing areas are in 30%. (3) Multi-cropping optimized and cropping density increased in wave. (3) Cropping patterns are change from high-yield to combination of high-yield and efficiency. (4) Crop rotation tends to area-demise and simplify. (5) Soil tillage is from extensive to intensive and labor-saving.2. Involving regularities of farming system in recent 50 years. Intensive cultivation is still major direction of farming system. Social demands are fundamental motive force to development of farming system. Improving to yield and environment is key task of farming system. Sustainable development is basic rule of farming system. Agricultural technical innovation and reasonable input are premise and guarantee.3. Trends of food and cereals consumption and its future forecasts in China. (1) China has entered stages of stable vegetable food and gradual increasing of animal food in food consumption.(2) Food demand situations are calories reaching standards, protein shortage and vegetable oils lower. (3 ) Food and cereals demand in 2020 in China. Lower grain demand (D1) is 618.57 million ton; rice, wheat, maize and soybean demand are 189.04 million ton, 114.50 million ton, 141.37 million ton, 21.93 million ton, respectively. Higher grain demand (D2) is 643.19 million ton; rice, wheat, maize and soybean demand are 169.53 million ton, 89.66 million ton, 141.54 million ton,21.93 million ton, respectively.4. Future trends of fanning system in 2020. (1) Intensive cultivation is still major direction of fanning system. (2) Ensuring grain production, improving farmer's income and absorption of agricultural labors are main directions of fanning system. (3) Improving land utilization and yield and value per units are main proposals of forming system. In this paper, yield is divided into five grades based on 2001 levels, F3 is the average yield field, F2 is 20% lower man F3, F, is 20% lower than F2; F4 is 20% higher than F3, F5 is 20% higher than F4.
Keywords/Search Tags:farming system, involving regularities, food demands, regional forecast, 2020
PDF Full Text Request
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