| China is the most populous country in the world,with more people and less land,and relatively insufficient arable land reserve resources.In 2019,my country’s total arable land area was 1.851 billion mu,ranking third in the world.However,the per capita arable land area was only1.43 mu,which is less than 40% of the world’s per capita arable land.Although the total grain output in 2019 reached 663.84 million tons,the highest level in history,the gap between imports and exports of grain crops is too large,and it has been in a state of net imports.With the continuous development of my country’s social economy and the upgrading of consumption levels,my country’s demand for food will continue to grow for a period of time in the future,and it is urgent to carry out research on food security.Heilongjiang Province is a large agricultural province in my country and the most important commercial grain base.In 2019,the total grain volume of Heilongjiang Province was 75.03 million tons,which was 15 times that of the initial stage of the founding of New China.The grain increment accounted for 1/8 of the national grain increment.Output,commodity volume,and transfer volume accounted for 1/9,1/8,and 1/3 of the country,respectively.With the development of economic construction and urbanization,the area of arable land in Heilongjiang Province has decreased by 100,000 hectares from 2008 to 2019.On the whole,the total area of arable land has shown a continuous decrease,and the black soil layer has become thinner,organic matter content has decreased,and soil fertility has been reduced.With many problems such as decline,serious soil erosion,and decline in the quality of arable land,the quantity of black soil arable land is also difficult to stabilize.In the above context,predicting the amount of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province can provide a basis and reference for realizing sustainable agricultural development,ensuring national food security,and territorial and spatial planning.This article aims to ensure national food security,using Heilongjiang Province 2009-2018ten-year yearbook data and annual land changes and other relevant data,based on the theory of sustainable development,resource scarcity theory,and man-land relationship theory to predict Heilongjiang in 2025 and 2035.The amount of cultivated land in the province.The research results and conclusions of the full text are as follows:(1)From 2009 to 2018,the arable land mainly showed a decreasing trend.The main factors affecting the change in the amount of arable land were economic development factors,land consolidation factors,and national policy factors.With the rapid economic development,large-scale construction land occupation of cultivated land has reduced the amount of cultivated land.From 2009 to 2018,the area of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province showed a characteristic of "decreasing fluctuations".The total cultivated land in the province decreased from15.9443 million hectares to 15.929 million hectares,and the province’s cultivated land flow to construction land area reached 65,600 hectares.Land consolidation is an important source of the increase in the number of cultivated land.In ten years,the area of agricultural land flowing to cultivated land was 13,906.52 hectares,accounting for 23.77% of the total area of flow,and the area of unused land flowing to cultivated land was 39,360.35 hectares,accounting for 67.26% of the total area of flowing.At the same time,national policies such as agricultural subsidies and the policy of arable land requisition and compensation have greatly increased the awareness and enthusiasm of individuals to protect arable land.They are the key to ensuring the increase in the amount of arable land.However,as the reserve resources of arable land decrease,from the perspective of national food security strategy,The task of protecting cultivated land in the province is still arduous.(2)The order of the intensity of effects of various factors on grain production is: grain yield>multiple cropping index>grain economic ratio>arable land area.The correlation analysis results show that the correlation degree of grain yield is the largest,as high as 0.9966,indicating that grain yield is the decisive factor affecting grain yield.In the future,the yield can be improved mainly through the construction of high-standard farmland and the improvement of modern agricultural science and technology to increase grain output.(3)Based on the connotation of food security,formulate a plan for the amount of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province under multiple scenarios in the target year.In the context of national food security,combined with the level of economic development and food demand,the food security method is adopted to build a well-off/affluent per capita food demand level—low/medium/high grain external adjustment multi-scenario farmland retention plan,which can be selected according to different scenarios Appropriate program.Under the condition of maintaining the current level of foreign transfer,the amount of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province in 2025 is more suitable for the well-off-medium transfer type,which requires 14.9238 million hectares of cultivated land,and the amount of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province in2035 is more suitable for the rich-medium transfer type,which requires 1203.93 Ten thousand hectares of arable land.In the event of severe disasters or other uncontrollable external factors,the amount of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province in 2025 is more suitable for the well-off-high transfer type,that is,15.347 million hectares of cultivated land is required,and the amount of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province in 2035 is more suitable for the rich-high transfer type.That is,12.237 million hectares of arable land are needed.At this stage,the amount of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province is 13.87 million hectares.Compared with the predicted value of cultivated land in 2025 and 2035,there is still a gap of 1.0538 million hectares and 1.467 million hectares.Therefore,land consolidation must be promoted and used under the premise of sustainable development.Scientific and technological means strengthen the dynamic monitoring of the quantity and quality of cultivated land to ensure the realization of the goal of cultivated land retention.(4)Based on the target year forecast of the decomposing and revising concept,the local and municipal holdings are used to determine constraint indicators for the protection of local cultivated land.Based on the concept of decomposition and revision,the target year’s holdings in each city are predicted to determine constraint indicators for the protection of local cultivated land.Based on the predicted value of the amount of cultivated land at the provincial level,the amount of cultivated land in thirteen cities is obtained with reference to the revised decomposition of each index,which serves as a binding index for local cultivated land protection.The distribution of cultivated land in various cities is similar to the distribution of cultivated land in various cities.The cultivated land is concentrated in the Songnen Plain and Sanjiang Plain.Qiqihar,Harbin,Jiamusi,Suihua,and Heihe have accounted for the total amount of cultivated land over the years.The proportion of Qitaihe City and Yichun City is relatively large.In the same scenario as the amount of cultivated land at the provincial level,under the well-off-medium transfer scenario in2025,the amount of cultivated land in the Songnen Plain is 8.0156 million hectares,accounting for57.31% of the total cultivated land,and the Sanjiang Plain is 4.0772 million hectares,accounting for 27.32 of the total cultivated land %;under the affluent-medium transfer scenario in 2035,the amount of cultivated land in the Songnen Plain is 6,290,400 hectares,and the Sanjiang Plain is3,196,000 hectares;if severe disasters or other uncontrollable external factors occur,in 2025,under the well-off-high transfer scenario,Songnen Plain has 8,242,700 hectares of arable land,Sanjiang Plain has 4,192,700 hectares;in 2035,under the affluent-high profile scenario,Songnen Plain has 6,572,800 hectares of arable land,and Sanjiang Plain has 3.3433 million hectares.(5)Put forward countermeasures and suggestions to guarantee the amount of cultivated land in Heilongjiang Province: strengthen the "double quantity" protection of the quantity and quality of cultivated land resources,improve the level of intensive land use,expand the scale of land management,improve the protection of cultivated land compensation mechanism,and establish and improve land use supervision platform.This research can provide ideas for determining the index of cultivated land retention in national land and space planning,and lay the foundation for the sustainable development of cultivated land resources and environment,and play a very important role in promoting Heilongjiang Province’s strategy of "reserving grain in land" and "reserving grain in technology".,Has a theoretical support role in ensuring national food security. |
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