| 1. Background and Research GoalsThe significance of the policy is indubitable, the quality of the policy can determine whether the cause will prosper or not, and a set of policy theory that can be applied to practice is the important premise of promoting policy-making into scientific track, while scientific policy-making can accelerate the development of policy theory, and then a good mutual relationship can be formed between them. The western policy theory can be traced to 1940's when it came into being as a independent subject and developed rapidly. And it was introduced to China in the end of 1970's. At the present time, policy theory in China is still in the phase of introducing, and yet hasn't finished the process of localization, and we still lack policy methodology research adapting to the situation of China. The above situation results in directly the "bottleneck" which limits the enhancement of the domestic policy value, and it can be described as the following five symptoms in concrete: the disparity between the demand in theory and operation in reality; the disparity between the demand in theory and research in reality; which indirectly cause the following three gaps: the gap between the policy analysts and the policy makers; the gap between research and policy; the gap between policy science and other science.As a necessary link of policy making, policy direction decision-making is generally acknowledged by policy science scholars at home and abroad, so the importance of the related procedures and methods are undoubted. But as same as the current situation of research on policy theory, the domestic research of policy direction decision-making also shows the above five gaps, and it can't guide effectively policy direction decision-making.With a view to home, the parent project "methodology study of public policy making and research", is aiming at developing scientific policy-making formula that can make the policy research and policy making complement, and providing a whole set of steps and procedures of policy research for the policy makers and policy analysts by focusing on the common objective—how to make hi-valued policy. To achieve the purpose, the parent project reduces the problems existing in the policy theory and practice to nine projects, whichcompose together "the scientific policy-making formula", this project, policy direction decision-making (i.e. summarization and feedback), is located in the graph 1 by shading.The parent study belongs to a theory amelioration study, which was granted by the state distinguished youth fund (79925002) . On the basis of the basic structure of the parent project, this study is exploration about the link of policy direction decision-making. It aims to provide the domestic policy analysts and policy makers a set of formula for policy direction decision-making supporting research and decision-making each other, basing the makeup and amelioration aiming at the defect and shortage of the theory of the policy direction decision-making link existing in the current domestic monographs. The formula includes the train of thought, steps, and the definitions, objectives, basic train of thought, principle and methods in common use of each step, and the chief matter that need attention in each steps, and the advantages and duties of the policy analysts and decision makers, respectively.This study consists of two parts: theory exploration and demonstration-simulation. "The part of theory exploration" emphasizes to manifest the shortage and defect of "policy direction decision-making" in domestic policy science field, and to recommend a set of formula of "policy direction decision-making" supporting research and decision making each other on the basis of making up the shortage and defect. "The part of demonstration-simulation" emphasizes to simulate and validate the recommended formula of "policy direction decision-making" with factual data.2. Research Methodology(1) Theory explorationThe bottleneck and five gaps in policy science that limit policy value can trace to kinds of deficiency of four aspects of "logicality, scientificity, maneuverability and rationality". As a member of task team, I took part in the construction of the indicator system on "logicality, scientificity, maneuverability and rationality" which can be used as the basic criteria for evaluation and improvement of policy science theory including "policy direction decision-making". The indicator system consists of 42 concrete indicators, and conducts theory amelioration study guided by the indicators and their criteria with the method of norm-and-gap analysis.During the period of analyzing the shortage, defects and vacancy about the policy direction decision-making, by comparing the current status of "logicality, scientificity, maneuverability and rationality" with the ideal, the study can judge the disparity and specify the shortage, defects and vacancy. Based on the defects, make up and ameliorate the related theory, and construct the basic frame, the train of thought and steps of the formula of policy direction decision-making. And then apply the above mentioned indicator system to enrich both the whole and each steps of the formula.Experts consultation is used to make judgment on the agreement degree of bug analysis of the research and to evaluate the degree of amelioration on policy direction decision-making theory.The data in theory exploration part is collected by general investigation of all of the policy science monographs published in China by the end of 2004, which is 40 in total.(2) Demonstration-simulationAccording to the formula for the policy direction decision-making recommended by the research, it would make demonstration-simulation researches on the end-result of "salary system of public health institutions of China set up in 1993", whose object was to distinguish its policy direction. The research would base the status quo of salary system of public medical institutions.Main data-collecting methods include subject investigation, routine data collection and intention survey. Methods used in demonstration-simulation include statistic description and statistic test methods, such as average, non-parametric statistics of two independent samples; induction; methods of multivariate statisticalanalysis, such as multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, etc.; literature review and so on.3. The main research results(1) Theory exploration about the link of policy direction decision-making1) The status quo and shortage of the theory of the policy direction decision-making linkAccording to sequence of the indicator system of "logicality, scientificity, maneuverability and rationality", the research evaluated the whole of policy direction decision-making and the four steps of it, viz. information feedback, policy change, policy legislation and policy termination, one by one. The analysis clarified the status quo of the theory of the policy direction decision-making link, and the shortage, defect and aspects which can be ameliorated. Then on the basis of the defect analysis, the degree to improve of the contents in the policy direction decision-making link was identified quantitatively.①The defect in the core goal, the train of thought, steps and methods fulfilling the goal of the policy direction decision-making"Policy direction" normatively expressed is an important and basic premise of manifesting systematism and avoiding aimlessness of policy theory, but there flat exists phenomenon that the diversified concepts in the policy science field remains to be normalized, which is fundamental defect of the policy direction decision-making link. About the core goal of the policy direction decision-making link, over half(57.5%) of the monographs do not mention it, the clear degree of the goal's narration scores 2.2 on the average, the degree to improve isn't less than 55.6%. In the current monographs, the most accurate narration appears in the related contents of policy supervision and information feedback, "its aim is to detect warp phenomenon in policy implementation, check and supervise the process of policy implementation, collect timely the data of policy effect, so as to decide whether to continue the implementing policy, or to need revised". Though the narration has a close relationship with "the policy direction decision-making", it is neither accurate nor clear. It only mentions two directions: policy continuance and policy change. So the core goal of the policy direction decision-making link should be depicted clearly on the basis of having defined the policy directions systematically.In addition, it is devoid of systematic indicators of policy directions and scientific criterion for policy directions. The related contents of criterion for policy directions are as follows: they are inducing factors, influencing factors, premise, basis, whys and so on for policy change, definition, basis, form, type, cause, etc. for policy termination, definition and condition for policy legislation. It is found that dispersal and much difference among the contents for the same direction. If estimates the assessment indicator with 9 score method, it's score ranges from 1 to 4, the average score is 2.2, the degree to improve isn't less than 55.6%.In terms of the train of thoughts of the policy direction decision-making, besides the above defects, superadded the unclear logical relation between the policy evaluation and policy direction link, this certainly would lead to be absence of systematic cognition and explanation in current policy theory. While it could be found close relation between information feedback and fulfilling the core goal, there was no distinct narration about the train of thoughts of fulfilling the core goal in interrelated contents. Owing to lack guidance of the train of thoughts, it makes the steps recommended by the current monographs lacks the external and internal logicality, then be unable to help to lack the sufficient evidence making the reader carry out the practical policy evaluation complying with fulfilling the core goal of the link.As regards principles in current monographs, there exist two problems: one is that they went without pertinence and the relation between principles and core goal needs explained under the circumstances of unclear core goal; the other is that the contents is too curt and the train of thoughts to put into practice is blurry.Study showed that it can be found methodology contents in the current monographs, but the pertinenceof all methods is unclear. And the issues showing in methods of policy control involved in policy direction decision-making are as follows: first, the relation between the methods and core goal is dark and severely lack pertinence; second, the contents is too curt, without operation point, and the reference clew is also unclear.It is obvious that the interrelated theory of core goal of policy direction decision-making has much shortage, neither analysts nor makers can catch on the core goal of policy direction decision-making link, it goes without saying fulfilling the goal according as the current theory.②The inner relation between policy direction decision-making and procedure of policy making It was found that 52.5 % of 40 monographs mentioned the relation between policy direction decision-making and procedure of policy making after careful search, and they focused the contents on significance, importance and function, etc., so there was no distinct narration about the relation. If estimates the assessment indicator with 9 score method, its score ranges from 1 to 5, the average score is 2.6, the degree to improve isn't less than 44.4%.The typical related contents mentioned in significance or function of policy change and policy termination are as follows, "policy change is propitious to ameliorate scientifically policy and stabilize policy comparatively; policy termination is propitious to save policy resources, promote policy optimization and improve policy performance"., and so, but they can't tell the relation between this link and "hi-valued policy making" and even solve policy issues in deed, and exhibit the state of dispersal and aimlessness. The above state means the contribution of the theory of this link to "hi-valued policy making", and even to solve policy, are hardly to illuminate. So the orientation of this link must be vague, and the value and significance of it can't be delineated clearly yet.③The relation between policy direction decision-making and policy evaluation Study showed that it can be found the contents concerning the relation between policy direction decision-making and policy evaluation in the 40% of current monographs, but there was no distinct narration about the relation between two links, which can be concluded three problems: firstly, the contents about the relation between policy change (policy termination) and policy evaluation is curt, and some clew only can be found in definition; secondly, there was no narration about the relation between policy legislation and policy evaluation; thirdly, the analogous criterion for policy direction decision-making hinted in current theory is found no the train of thoughts of how to associate it with policy evaluation. If estimates the assessment indicator with 9 score method, its score ranges from 1 to 6, the average score is4.2, the degree to improve isn't less than 33.3%.In the current monographs, the narration of getting maximum score of 6 is as "via evaluation people can not only judge the value of a policy, so as to decide policy direction from continuance, renovation and termination, but also review and analyze comprehensively the whole phases of policy process, summarize experience, assimilate lessons, and lay well groundwork for policy practice later"., but there was no distinct narration about the concrete relation between "policy itself value" and "decide policy direction from continuance, renovation and termination".In addition, it is devoid of indicators and corresponding methods of verifying the link of policy direction decision-making and policy evaluation, and the principles and methods of fulfilling the link is also vacant. At last, the train of thoughts of fulfilling the link is dark, and existing steps can't ensure fulfilling the link..Current steps of policy change have reflected the information feedback, for instance, "first, to get feedback information, namely detect the information of policy system circulation, especially policy implementation result, during checking and supervising from special institution", "revised procedure:information feedback, revised decision-making"'.. Such theory are good to ameliorate the steps of policy direction decision-making from the start point of ameliorate the step of fulfilling the link between policy direction decision-making and policy evaluation, but too simple and general, the function is also unclear. ?The logical relation among the inner steps of the policy direction decision-making The proportion of the monographs mentioned steps among 40 monographs is 55%, but there is no distinct narration about the relation between each step and core goal of policy direction decision-making link, the relation among steps behaves the same phenomenon, and it can be deduced from step title and its contents. If estimates the assessment indicator with 9 score method, the degree to improve isn't less than 66.7%. ⑤The relation between the policy direction decision-making and the new procedure of policy making The succeeding link of the policy direction decision-making is "the new procedure of policy making". It was found that 42.5% of 40 monographs mentioned the relation between policy direction decision-making and the new procedure of policy making after careful search, and they focused the contents on policy termination and policy legislation, moreover, the relation between two procedures of policy making is also talked of from the angle of policy cycle theory. But the issues found in it are as follows: first, there exists difference among the contents for the same relation between policy termination and the new procedure of policy making in different monographs, and needs to be formulated; second, the relation between policy legislation and the new procedure of policy making stress the significance of policy legislation, and needs to be formulated, too; third, part of the theory's rationality needs formulated. So the relation between policy direction decision-making and the new procedure of policy making is unclear and lacks systematism.2) Amelioration of the theory of the policy direction decision-making link①Construction of the train of thought and steps of the policy direction decision-making on the basis of makeup and consummation aiming at the defect and shortageAiming at the shortage, defects and vacancy about the policy direction decision-making in current monographs, make up and ameliorate the related theory, and construct the formula of policy direction decision-making step by step. Above all, the basic concepts of policy directions were defined systematically, and the core goal and its related theory of the link were depicted clear on the basis of the basic frame of the link. Secondly, to fulfilling the goal of the policy direction decision-making, the logistic train of thoughts from the link base was constructed. Thirdly, according the logistic train of thought, the tasks that are necessary to fulfill the goal could be ascertained, and the basic steps of "the policy direction decision-making" could be formed, and then summarized and recommended the basic train of thoughts and methods in common use. Fourthly, applied the indicator system "logicality, scientificity, maneuverability and rationality" to enrich both the whole and each steps of the formula, which included the manipulating principles, the advantages, duties and the place needed to harmony of the policy analysts and decision makers, and the contents and methods of fulfilling the combination of both sides, etc.②Brief introduction of the maim theory research results of the policy direction decision-makingIt is inferred from current policy science theory that policy direction consists of policy continuance, policy change, policy legislation and policy termination, and the foundation and premise of which are "policy evaluation".In a word, the goal of the link is to scientifically decide the policy direction, which ranges from policy continuance, policy change, and policy legislation to policy termination.In the construction process of train of thoughts the policy direction decision-making, the study showed that construction of criterion for policy direction is the foundation of fulfilling the goal, so it constructed the system info of criterion for policy direction, which comprised change law of policy directions (Graph 2), the logistic relation of the influencing factors of "policy value" and policy direction decision-making (Graph 3).hierarchy and construction elements of indicators of policy direction decision-making, the concrete criterion for policy direction decision-making, and so on (refer to text).Graph 2 change law of policy directionsGraph 3 The logistic relation of the influencing factors of "policy value" and policy direction decision-makingAccording to the train of thoughts and the frame of fulfilling the goal of the policy direction decision-making link, the steps were established as follows: information preparation, clarification of basic direction of special policy and policy direction decision-making (Table 1).Table 1 Brief summary of steps and recommended methods of policy direction decision-making link③Expert assessment of the formula for the policy direction decision-makingThe result of the expert assessment indicates that, when regarding the goal of the link, the relation between the link and procedure of policy making, the relation between the link and the policy evaluation, the operational train of thoughts, the steps, the principles and the methods of the link, the relation of between the link and the new procedure of policy making, the theory of the formula for the policy directiondecision-making recommended by the study has been ameliorated fairly on the base of current policy monographs. The study shows that the lowest degree to improve is 23.6%, the highest is 60.4%, and there exists 20% of the indicators whose degree to improve is over 25% (including 25%), 70% of the indicators whose degree to improve ranges from 25% to 50% (including 50%), and 20% of the indicators whose degree to improve exceeds 50%. But the policy evaluation procedure theory is nor perfect, the expert assessment indicates that the theory of the policy direction decision-making still needs to be improved in all indicators. For example, in regard to maneuverability indicators, the degree to improve of the formula for the policy direction decision-making ranges from needed 13.5% -53.1 %.(2) Demonstration-simulation of procedure in the policy direction decision-makingAccording to the recommended formula for the policy direction decision-making, especially the steps, it had made demonstration-simulation researches on the end-result of "salary system of public health institutions of China set up in 1993", whose object was to distinguish its policy direction. The research based the status quo of salary system of public medical institutions.The research was conducted by the sequence of "information preparation, clarification of basic direction of special policy and policy direction decision-making", thereinto, the "information preparation" accounted for the most length. In the phase of information preparation, first of all, it ascertained the indicators of policy direction of given policy on base of having been familiar with the related information of "salary system reform in 1993", second, the theoretical value (range) or state of the indicators are depicted clear, third, the actual value or state of the indicators could be delineated by the means of the methods of investigation and analysis. The above results are shown in Table 2. The results and analysis process indicated that the positive value of policy was dominating, but led to many serious problems, "the ability of solving issues was great, at the same time the extent of chaos and shock is also great", so the basic direction of the system was policy change. At last, the latent concrete contents of salary system reform of public health institutions were briefly introduced by the indicators of implementation process and policy origin, of course, part of the indicators of policy effect and influence also could provide clue to ascertain the contents of policy change.No doubt that the research is only the fundamental and preparatory study for distribution system of public medical institution owing to different factors, however, the simulation process shows that the formula can guide the research and practice of policy direction decision-making effectively, and has manifested the promotion function of making up the deficiency of four aspects of "logicality, scientificity, maneuverability and rationality" and removing the "five bottleneck" of influencing policy efficiency.Table 2 The theoretical and actual value or state of the direction indicators of the salary system of publichealth institutions of China set up in 19934. The main exploration of the study(1) Take part in construction of the indicator system for appraising the policy science theoryThe task team constructed the indicator system on "logicality, scientificity, maneuverability and rationality" which was used as the basic tools to evaluate normally and ameliorate the policy science theory.(2) Specify the defect and shortage of the theory of the policy direction decision-making link in thecurrent monographsAccording to the indicator system, the research evaluated the whole and steps directing at the related narration about the policy direction decision-making link in the current policy monograph, specified the defects and shortage of the related contents in the logicality, scientificity, maneuverability, and rationality, one by one, among which the number of theory vacancy is 12, and the theory defect is 28.(3) Makeup and amelioration aiming at the defect and shortageAiming at the shortage, defects and vacancies in theory about "the policy direction decision-making", make up and ameliorate them one by one, and then enrich the theory of policy direction decision-making in its logicality, scientificity, maneuverability, and rationality as far as possible.(4) Construction of system info of criterion for policy directionThis research broke through the bottleneck, criterion for policy direction decision-making, of fulfilling the goal of the link, had constructed the complete set of system info of criterion for policy direction, including application train of thoughts, laid the foundations of insuring achieving the theory amelioration objects.(5) Summarize and recommend the formula for the policy direction decision-makingThe formula for the policy direction decision-making includes the steps, and the object, train of thoughts, principle and technical demand of each step, and the theory can become the instructional research method for the policy makers and policy analysts when they carry out the policy direction decision-making research and reform for specific policy.(6) Demonstration-simulation of the theory research resultsAccording to the formula for the policy direction decision-making, it had made researches on the end-result of "salary system of public health institutions of China set up in 1993". The simulation result shows that the formula is strict in logicality, easy and practical to operate, and can guarantee the scientificity and rationality of the research results.
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