| 1. Objective and SignificanceThis study is a component of the project ''Research on Methodology of Public Policy", which is granted by the State Distinguished Youth Fund (79925002).The success of public affairs in society depends on well-designed public policies, so the rational goal of policy science is to make policy scientific, practical and with high-value. However until now, there are a great number of failed cases in the procedure of policy-making and policy- implementing because of the policy-makers' instinct and preference. For this, what we need is a set of scientific methodology of public policy with interactive and mutual-benefit relationship between policy-research and policy-making.However, the theory of public policy in China, as a whole, is still on preliminary stage, especially in terms of the combination with Chinese society, and the research of policy methodology adapting to the practical status of China is still in vacancy. In fact, the shortage of mechanism and methodology of policy science, which can support policy researchers and policymakers with each other, becomes the bottleneck destroying the value of the policy. Due to this bottleneck, the following in reality often appears:In terms of policy-making, gaps and disparities between the demands in theory and operation in reality exist. In terms of policy-research, gaps and disparities between these exit too. Besides, there also exist gaps and disparities between the policy- researchers and policy-makers, research and application, the natural science research and the social policy research.Considering the undoubtedly importance of pubic policies in society, the project "Research on Methodology of Public Policy", based upon China, is to establish a scientific policy-making procedure that can make the policy-research and policy-making supporting each other. And it can provide a whole set of approaches and procedures to the policy-makers and policy-researchers focusing on how to make high-value policy. So we design the scheme of the scientific procedure of Policy-making.The feasibility study is the forth stage of a scientific policy-making procedure. It aims to evaluate the every candidate alternatives, making it a powerful instrument to change the afterward checking into previously useful control. So it is an unavoidable stage in the policy-making procedure, in a word, no feasibility study, no policy-decision.The project aims to provide the domestic policy researcher and policy maker a set of operating procedure of feasibility study, which supports research and making each other. The procedure includes the frame idea, steps, and the objectives of each steps, basic ideas and principle, common methods, the primary matters that need attention in each steps, the separate advantages and duties of the policy researcher and maker.This study consists of two parts, one is theory exploration, and the other is demonstration simulation. "The part of policy feasibility study" emphasizes to manifest the shortage and defect of "policy feasibility study" in domestic policy writings, and to recommend a set of operating procedure of "policy feasibility study" on the basis of making up the shortage and defect, which supporting research and making each other. "The other part of demonstration simulation", emphasizes employing the present data to simulate and validate the recommended operating procedure of "policy feasibility study".2. Research Methodologies(l)Theory exploration:Focusing on "logic, scientificity, practicability and rationality", the general project sets up a set of indices composed of 42 specific indices to evaluate policy studies. Among this study, the set of indices is used to, ? evaluate the shortage, defect and vacancy about the present policy compositions, @ make up the criteria of the defect. In the part of theory exploration, employing the method of norm — gap analysis method as the instructive method and using the above-mentioned indices, the paper analyzes 40 domestic compositions on the subject of policy and determines the existing shortage, defect or vacancy. Then the paper consummates and fetches up them as possible as we can and rebuilds the system of policy feasibility study. At last, the paper testifies it by expert consultation.(2) Demonstration simulationThe study selected the Policy Schemes" how to harmonize the rural cooperative care and the social security system of small towns", implementation process in Jiading District, Shanghai to simulate the steps and methods of second data picking-up. Main data-collecting method includes routine data collection, sample survey, and intention survey. Main research methods are case study and data simulation.3. Main Research results(1) Theory Exploration about the policy feasibility study tache1. The deficiency of the domestic present policy literaturesAccording to sequence of the indicator system, from the overall policy feasibility to the steps, analyze the related content o the current domestic policy workings one by one. The analysis results specify the theory situation of the tache, confirming the shortage, defect and vacancy. Then on the basis of the defect analysis, identify quantitatively the degree need consummating of this tache. Most represent as follows:?The defect in the overall objective and the trains, steps and methods fulfilling the objectives of the policy feasibility study:According to the literature review, it is necessary to recognize the importance of the feasibility in policy implementation, and according the "feasibility", demonstrate it in political, economic, technological, juristic, governmental, societal phages, but omit the information for policy implementation provided from the feasibility study. As the result, it is hard to the readers to master the use and importance of feasibility study in the scientific policy-making procedure (no demonstration 45.0%, the degree need consummating is 44.4%). If the problem isn't demonstrated clearly, workload become heavy, and the policy will achieve nothing. Although, there are 22 books which explained the indicators of feasibilitystudy, the details of different books have great gaps, and the explanations are too simple to provide logical demonstration between the indicators and the study objective. The average score of the 40 books is only 1.25(45.0%. 1-4, 55.6%). If the feasibility studies aren't established, it is unavoidable to make the mistake "take personal preference into science."Compared with other taches, such as policy-making and policy -evaluating, feasibility study have few methods used directly for policy-study if the objective in the tache is unclear. The demonstration about principle is scattered, short of direction, and unclear. The present books describe the steps of feasibility study, in summaries, 2 books based on investment construction project; the other 11 books pay attention to the steps of pre-evaluation preparation, enforcement and summary. According to the studies on the different steps, policy feasibility study has been finished. The principle from the two summaries have their own advantage and disadvantage, in the realistic case, learned from each other, the theory of policy feasibility study will be finished with more logic, scientificity, practicability and rationality. The indirect demonstration about general directive principle and the detail steps prefer the key points of study plan than the logical and continuous steps, and the demonstration on the procedure of plan implementation was too qualitative, as the result, in realistic case, the demonstration about the feasibility and objectives have no relations, and the operability need to strengthen. ( 67.5%. 1-2. 77.7%). Because of the shortage and vacancy in demonstration of logic, scientificity, practicability and rationality, it is hard for the readers to get a systemic, intact impression, to get reasonable information, to understand the aim of the tache, and to know how to carry out to realize the aim. The shortage of rationality is expressed (82.5%. 1-4, 55.5%). ?The deficiency of the relationship between Feasibility study and "Policy alternatives making" The scientific procedure of Policy-making is a consecutive whole. In order to develop the valuable policy, every specific tache has its special objective and duties, the objectives of the taches must have logically correlation, the taches are closely related in the produre, and the lower taches must provide the upper steps of basis and important information.The policy feasibility study is the tache to evaluate the alternatives and choose the best. "Either the feasibility study before policy implementation, or the policy evaluation after the implementation, usually the evaluated alternatives are established and needn't more affirm." The information supplied from the policy alternatives making is the foundation of the policy feasibility study. As a result, if we speak in general terms and lack of clear expression, the study of policy feasibility study often fail. About the information from the former tache, the mention about feasibility study say that centre on the policy, the information explain 5 problems: 1) what is the problem, and its characteristics? 2) In the past and recent, which policies are used to solve the problem, and what effect do they achieve? 3) How much value of the policy achievements for further dealing with the problem? 4) For further dealing with the problem, how many policies are available, and their future effect? 5) Which policy should be chosen to implement? (40%, 1~3, 66.7%). The discussions describe the requirement of the information from the final demonstration. But if the former tache can supply all of the information need? Where are the gaps? What information need to be collected to make up the gaps? It needs further definitude and discussion. The key questions to join the two taches effectively are that we should arrange the above information according to the research result of the Policy Alternative Making. Furthermore, about the way transferring the information, the present literatures only tell some certain clues, and they haven't formed operable content aimed to link the two taches.?The deficiency of the relationship between Feasibility study and "Policy implementation" When policy goes from making system into implementation system, its subject changes, it is important to make clear of the information from the former tache. In the procedure of policyimplementation, "What is the policy?" need be answered firstly. The true spirits of the policy in the books need to be mastered completely; the incomplete understanding and mastering of the essentials of the policy in the literatures will directly affect the efficiency of policy implementation. However, what information can the policy feasibility supply to the implementation? ! What role the information played in the implementation? What are the theoretical requirement to grasp the policy? The demonstration is lack of clear mention(65%. 1-5. 44.4%) and the practicable standards ( 80%. 1-4. 55.6%). Many literatures think that the information communication is very important in the policy feasibility study. On the base of the requirement of policy implementation, we clear up that the content of information conduction and the interrelated standards, the effect of the communication can be bettered. From the recent literatures, such discussion on the policy connotation and interrelated standards has not yet been found.? The deficiency of logical relationship among the inner steps of Policy Feasibility studyThe inner three steps embody the route to realize the objective of policy feasibility study. Though there are many kinds to sort the steps, every step must serve for the upper objective of the policy feasibility study. The feasibility study of other decision-making problems lack of normative and in-depth research except for the domain of the investment construction. The present literatures only describe the inner steps of policy feasibility study through indirect way, main including two kinds: 1) the steps are induced on the feasibility study process of large-scale investment construction. 2) The study about the policy feasibility can be accomplished during the policy pre-evaluation and optimization. The descriptions are so indirect that the problems come into being: 1) the former feasibility study pay attention to the profit of the large-scale investment, so its principle can be used to study the policy alternatives after solving the problems about its applicability. 2) The two descriptions of indicator have their respective advantages and disadvantages; they need to learn from each other. 3) The present two descriptions of the inner steps aim to their respective sides of the upper objective, and their principle has certain error (67.5%, 2-3,66.7%). For example, the policy alternatives-making supplies all kinds of possible alternatives. When the policy-makers face more than one feasible alternative, their final decision must produce from optimization. So the optimization of alternatives will be necessary steps of feasibility study. But the present literatures lack of direct and indirect descriptions of the domain.The deficiency of scientificity mainly show that there is serious argument about the inner steps in the present literature, the inner process of policy feasibility study can not be reflected adequately, the descriptions about the inner steps are some samples of main points. Though the literatures mention the contents, indicators, and methods, but the description is only spoken in general terms (67.5%, 1-3,66.7%). The situation shows that though the present literatures are conscious of the importance of establishing the examination content and indicators, but it need to be consummated continuously because of the complexity and roughness.One literature suggests that feasibility study include three steps, namely opportunity study, preliminary feasibility study, and technical and economic feasibility study. The deduction is that if we want to evaluate and optimize the alternatives, qualitative and quantitative multi-ply reasoning is used to study the policy. At the same time, feasibility study itself can be directive method of research and be used wherever. But the present literatures don't describe how the methods tie in the steps (65.0%, 1-3,66.7%).2. The principle and steps of policy feasibility study come into being on the base of detailed consummating the present deficiency.Aim at the current shortage, deficiency, and vacancy of the present literatures, the studies make up and consummate detailed, then the research formula of policy feasibility study is formed step by step. Firstly, on the base of harmonize the orientation of the policy feasibility study in the whole policypolicy-making procedure, the research definitude the objective of the feasibility study, clarify and normalize the basic concepts and interrelated principles. Secondly, the logical principle from the beginning point to ending point can be established to realize the objective of the tache. Thirdly, on the base of the principle, the assignment of the stages can be confirmed to manage to the objective, the basic inner steps of policy feasibility study can be established and summarized, the rational content of the literatures can be absorbed, the concerned content about correlative subjects can be used for reference, the basic principle and useful methods are summarized and recommended. Finally, on the base of the principle and methods of every step, many problems in the procedure and steps of the policy feasibility study can be clarified such as the respective duties between the policy-makers and researchers, the adjustment to assort with each other, the contents and methods to realize the cooperation.3. The established steps and methods of policy feasibility studyThe study will give a brief description as follows, the detailed content show in the latter text.(i) The objective of the policy feasibility studyAs an important tache of the scientific procedure of Policy-making, policy feasibility study aims to analyze the designed alternatives, to judge whether the alternatives are feasible on me research 01 their realistic situation about the political viability, economic feasibility, technical feasibility, and social feasibility. And then feasibility study will optimize the feasible alternatives.? The goals of the policy feasibility study1) Confirm the study objects and bounds;2) Clarify the useful indicators in political, economic, technical, and social domains.3) Use the indicators to give the special alternative a step-by-step evaluation which is involve with political, economic, technical, and social domains.4) Evaluate and compare the alternatives on the base of research result.5) The necessarily, scientificity, practicability, rationality, and efficiency of the final alternative can be described clearly on the base of the study result.(3) The information which the policy feasibility study received from the former taches.1) The relationship between the policy feasibility study and the former taches.The designed alternatives need feasibility study, in this way, we can know whether the candidate policies are feasible and which one is the best and is selected. Through harmonimize their relationship, there are tight connections among the policy feasibility study, policy issue identification, the determination on the root and function mechanism of the policy issue, and the research of policy alternatives.In feasibility study on the policy alternatives, the design of indicators system need aim at correct problem, be based on scientific and practical principle, selecting the key factors. In this way, the scientific and practical indicators system could be accomplished. The study needs trace back to the identification of policy issue and definitude the ponderance and impendence; validate the root mechanism of the policy issue and the reasons of the alternatives, and then the alternatives which can solve the issue in time and effectively can be definitude on the base of the objective orientation. By the inspection of the two former taches, the eligible alternatives can have the scientific, rational principle; the necessary indicators system can be established to research their material content particularly.The Policy Alternative supply the objects for the policy feasibility study. Therefore, the alternative provided need to have detailed contents and good outlooks (such as, goals, measures, the need resource, details of practice, and etc.); otherwise, the alternatives face the danger of being washed out before the study.In keep the justice and rationality of the outcomes, the independence is emphasized during the policyfeasibility study. So the researchers can not get the grip as much as the alternative-makers on the policy alternatives. So during the study, the researchers may pay attention to the direct efficiency and neglect the indirect impact of the alternatives. Therefore, the information of the policy alternatives should illuminate their respective goodness and shortages, direct and indirect efficiency in order that the researcher can get a deeper cognition to the alternatives.2) The principle of the relation between the feasibility study and the former tache.According the above illumination about the relation between policy feasibility study and the former tache, 3 key points are worth attention: ?the alternatives should aim at the right issue; ?the alternatives should deal with the issue promptly and efficiently; (D the illumination should supply the detailed information about the alternatives such as the goal, principle, contents, and etc.If the former taches have gained well-off and well-knit development, it will follow a rational line to connect the policy feasibility study with the taches well, and the feasibility study can succeed to some information and avoid repeating some research. How does the policy feasibility study gain assuring connect with the former taches? Let's see below table 2.? The basic steps of the policy feasibility studyThe policy feasibility study can be divided into 3 stages. Every stage includes many interrelated steps, account to 8. Table 1-1 summarizes the steps' names, beginnings, ends, and aims.?The corresponding relationship between the feasibility study and the policy implementation If the quality of the feasibility study can gain ensured, the optimized alternative can be approved, and the feasibility study report can provide information for the interest groups. The information includes 6 points: firstly, the policy issue. Secondly, the root factors and function mechanism of the issue, such as root factors, direct factors, indirect factors, and mutual relationship. Thirdly, the goals of the alternatives aim at the influencing factors in the function mechanism. Fourthly, how is the mutual relationship among the alternatives to solve the issue? Which factors in the issue are the respective goals of the alternatives9 How do the alternatives influent the special factors in the function mechanism, promote to solve the issue9 Fifthly, the information about the alternatives includes the goals, objects, region and administrative*If roots and mechanism of a policy issue are systematically analyzed, alternatives can be easily formulated through induction and deduction without any specific analysis.(2) Expert assessment of the policy feasibility study theoryThe results of expert assessment show that there are clear increases in the theory of policy feasibility study, such as the object of the tache, the relationship between the tache and the policy-making procedure, the connection of the tache and the former ones, the principle, steps, thinking thread and principle, the relationship between the tache and the policy implementation, and so forth. For example, every indicator of logic has increased 23.6% - 31.1% separately. The indicators of scientificity have raised 31.2%-51.0%. There are 23.6%-44.6% increases in the sections of rationality. But the theory system of policy feasibility study is not perfect. The result of expert evaluation show that in every kind of indicators, there are many matters need being ameliorated in the theory system of policy feasibility study. For example, the extent need being improved in the formula of policy feasibility study is 23.6%-51.0%.(3) Demonstration simulation of policy feasibility studyFollowing the think thread supplied by the theory exploration, the demonstration simulation offeasibility study is conducted on the policy which to cooperate the rural cooperative care the with the social security system of small towns.The original design of harmonizing policy is that the cooperative care concedes and the social security system is push independently. But the evaluation about the policy's necessity, efficiency, scientificity, operability, the matters are found in the policy's content: (1) the security system will have a political impact on the cooperative care. (2) The independent push will bring long-term latent economic burden to Jiading District. (3) The technology can not solve efficiently the issue "poverty due to illness" (4) The implementation of the policy will reduce the justice and attainability of rural medical insurance. Hence the issue will become more serious. As a result, the harmonizing policy should be corrected on the base of the found matters so that the policy to integrate the cooperative care and the security system. The repeated validation show that the adjusted policy reaches the regulate requirement in political, economic, technical, social domain.In order to adapt to the diversity of villages and towns in Jiading, in order to reinforce the applicability of operation, the integrated policy is reinforce and four alternatives are formed. Based on the five indicator such as the standard of raising funds, the situation of paying for clinic, the situation of paying for hospitalization, the number of patients, the degree of attention to poverty due to illness, the four alternatives are compared to clarify their respective advantages and disadvantages, so that the policy-maker can choose the best according to the reality of Jiading.The feasibility study report can be induced by summing up the result, and the four alternatives are recommended to the administrative departments. At the same time, the policy of pushing the security system independently is the included in the report as the complementary.Following the legal proceedings, the administrative department will examine and approve the report. Because it is the new issue on how to coordinate the cooperative care and the security system, much information is waiting for definite and this belongs to uncertain decision. As a result, the final decision of approval is to push the security system at first, and to decide after the observation. The feedback should be reinforced to detect the matters promptly and adjust the policy. 4. The main exploration of the research(1) Establishment of the indicators system for reading and appraising the policy science theoryThe study-group build a indicator system used to judge the logicality, scientificity, maneuverability, and rationality, and used as the basic tools to analyze normally and consummate research of the policy science theory.(2) Specify the defect and shortage of the policy feasibility study tache in the current literaturesEmploying the indicator system, directing at the related narration about policy feasibility study tache in the current policy workings, from the overall to each step, specify the defect and shortage in the logicality, scientificity, maneuverability, and rationality, among which the number of theory vacancy is 20, and the theory defect is 19.(3) Makeup and consummation directing at the defect and shortageAiming at the shortage, defect and vacancy in theory about "policy feasibility study", consummate and fetch up step by step, and consolidate its logicality, scientificity, maneuverability, and rationality as far as possible.(4) Summarize and recommend the policy feasibility study procedure and related stepsThe policy feasibility study procedure theory should include the steps of consummating policy feasibility study, the purpose of each step, the thinking thread, the common methods, the matters about the cooperation between policy-researcher and policy-maker, and do forth. Compared to the present theory...
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