Chinese Computable General Equilibrium Micro-Simulation Model:Construction And Application

Since the reform and opening up, china’s economy has made tremendous achievements. However, as the economy continues to develop, more and more problems have been exposed such as unsustainable development issues are still outstanding, irrational industrial structure, resourse and environmental constraints increase, income gap is still large, too slow income growth and so on. These issues are hindering the completion of a comprehensive well-off society and building a socialist harmonious society. This requires that the government pay attention to resourece protection, optimize the industrial structure, reduce poverty and mitigate income inequality in the premise of steady economic growth. Focusing policies on resourse utilization, industrial restructuring, welfare and poverty status.The thesis funded by National Natural Science Fund Committee, studies on the CGE-MS modeling technology and its specific application, which includes two parts. First, we use computable general equilibrium micro-simualtion sequential approach to build a CGE-MS model with Keynesian structure. Second, take economic growth, industrial restructuring and poverty reduction as research target. We analyze the impact of water price, electricity and natural gas subsidies, giving directional advises to Chinese policy choices during transition period.First, based on IO tables in2007, and combined with various statistical yearbooks and other relevant data, we establish the macro-SAM table in2007. And on this basis, we refine it to get the original microeconomic SAM. In addition, we elaborate the defects of the original SAM, and provide improve approach. Knowing the asymmetry defects of existing update methods and restrictions of non-negative matrix elements, the thesis proposed new JSD approaches based on information theory with sign-preservation and tolerance extensions, provide a comprehensive set of framework of updating matrix, and prove the excellent properties of JSD approaches by empirical study. Second, we build a CGE-MS model whick is applicable to China by two steps.The first step is to establish a Chinese CGE model of Keynesian structure based on IFPRI standardized model, and test the correctness of model constructure. The second step is to expand micro-simulation model, set up a endogenous poverty line, making CGE-MS model can outstanding finish to completet the simulation of policy, and implement all model codes by using the GAMS software, which provide a complete set of scalable analysis framework, prepare for subsequent analog applications, and also provide a reference for similar studies, from defining structure, mathematical equations’ system to the software achievement.Third, we simulated water price increase, electricity and natural gas subsidies policy, and got several conclusions of research analysis based on simulation results after establishing the model.For the simulation of water price increase, the results indicate that the rising of water price has adverse effect on economic growth, employment, and many other indicators and lead to the increase of consumer price index. Moreover, the income of household, enterprise, and government appear decline because of the negative effects. The headcount index and poverty gap were slightly increased. However, water consumption per unit of GDP is drop down significantly, and water utilization ratio is improved.For the simulation of abolish subsidies for electricity and natural gas, The results indicate that the removing of electricity and natural gas subsidies has adverse effect on economic growth, employment, and many other indicators. And the output of mining and heavy chemical industry is sharply decreased. Moreover, the income of household and enterprise appear decline because of the negative effects. The decrease of government income is relative small because the decline of expenditure. The headcount index and poverty gap has increased. However, electricity and natural gas consumption per unit of GDP is drop down significantly, and resource utilization ratio is improved. What’s more, the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure is improved. The industrial structure is optimization and upgrading. Finally, the dissertation makes a conclusion on both theoretical research and empirical simulation of CGE modeling, points out the direction of the future development, clarifies the limitations and shortcomings of current researches, then provides suggestions for improvement of academic researches of CGE.