Study On The Measurement And Mechanism Of Intergenerational Income Mobility In Transition China

Intergenerational income mobility studies the degree to which income status is transmitted from one generation to the next. It reflects equality of opportunity and is measured by intergenerational income elasticity. What is intergenerational income elasticity in China? It is a significantly social problem and involves the evaluation on income distribution and public policies making of the public and government. Since2000, many scholars studied intergenerational mobility in China but didn’t come to consistent conclusions. So, the core problems are as follows: how is intergenerational mobility in China? How is the current level of intergenerational mobility shaped? What about the future trends?The Main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)China is fairly mobile since1980s. New estimate based on intergenerational data from Chinese health and nutrition surveys imply that intergenerational income elasticity is around0.21. The intergenerational mobility in China is moderately high compared internationally.(2)The higher mobility in China comes from the social and economic transformation. The intergenerational mobility since1980s is driven by structural changes of macro economy. The confluence of marketization, industrialization and urbanization produced unprecedented upward mobility and the rapid expansion of education also greatly increased the upward mobility probability of the people.(3)There is a tendency for intergenerational mobility in China to deteriorate. The positive effect of industrialization and urbanization on intergenerational mobility will disappear as the economy is close to steady state, but the remnants of the system of planned economy still work and the unequal access to education is exaggerated by marketization.These findings have important equity and development implications. The high mobility present in China is largely driven by the external environment changes. As China is becoming high-income country, the external force in transition will fade away. The postindustrial China need form institutionalized mechanism of intergenerational mobility. So, it is essential to introduce social policies for development to construct an open society.The innovations of this thesis are as follows: (1)Firstly, we estimate intergenerational income elasticity in China using complete models with covariate restrictions. It offers the measurement on dynamic income distribution and supplies the consistent measurement on intergenerational elasticity in nonregular dynamic data.(2)Secondly, we explain the mechanism of intergenerational mobility in China’s transition period. It takes a little longer time to intergenerationally mobile. So, we investigate the mechanism of intergenerational mobility from a long term perspective. On one hand, we empirically study the interaction between micro-structural mobility and initiative pursuit of interest of the individuals. On the other hand, we construct a macro-economic model by abstracting stylized facts and theoretically predicting the changes of intergenerational mobility in future.(3)Lastly, we construct the security system of equality of opportunity. Equality of opportunity means economic growth and social policies should benefit the vast majority, which requires individual’s skills meet social demand so as to promote the sustainable development of economy. So, it is essential to introduce human capital policies for development, especially the family policy helpful to develop early childhood ability。...