Driven by the western development strategy, the economy of western resource-oriented city has an extraordinary development pace and power grid construction is showing a rapid development trend. On the one hand, the grid construction must be advanced and adapt to socio-economic development, on the other hand, the economic construction and electricity demand projects are influenced by multi-policy, multi-agent and multi-environment. Also, the basis of grid self-construction is relatively weak, which make the decision-making of power grid construction project face a series of challenges, with a high uncertainty and decision-making risk. Therefore, in order to guarantee the investment returns of power grid construction projects of western resource-oriented city, to make a scientific decision-making for power grid construction projects, to effectively control decision-making risk and reduce loss, the risk management approach and management system are urgently needed to establish for western resource-oriented city.From two perspectives of "project group decision-making" and "single project decision-making ", based on a number of practical research and theoretical literature review, a research idea was proposed with project decision theory and risk management theory:make the identification and control of critical risk sources as the core of grid construction decision-making risk management system of western resource-oriented city. Namely, a risk analysis model was established by a combination of methods to identify the key risks and their sources in the grid construction decision-making. Based on the results of risk identification, methods and models of risk control about identification sources, decision-making sources and process collaboration were proposed and established respectively, which can provide scientific theories and methods for risk management of grid construction decision-making in similar cities. The main works of this paper are as follows:(1) For the high risks and strong uncertainties of grid construction project decision-making of western resource-oriented city, an improved risk identification model, namely hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM) was proposed on the basis of analyzing the development characteristics of western resource-oriented city and its impact on the risks of grid construction decision-making, Firstly, make a risk identification from two main lines(" project group decision-making" and "single project decision-making") and multiple dimensions; secondly, evaluate and filter out the key risks by an evaluation method which considers risk probability and risk loss; moreover, explore and obtain the key risk sources:information sources, decision-making sources of project group and collaborative sources in a single project management; lastly, according to the key risk sources, a building idea of risk control system was proposed, which laid a foundation for the study of risk control models and methods.(2) For the information is incomplete, untimely, inaccurate and changing frequently, based on the analysis for the status of information management and decision-making needs, a risk control strategy about information sources was put forward:build a comprehensive information basis for grid planning decisions; on the basis of analyzing the decision-making theme, the concept model of integrated information base was designed; obtain a more valuable decision-making information from the information base, build a data mining model for decision-making theme and make an empirical study in order to achieve effective control for information source risks.(3) For decision source risks of grid construction project group, a multi-level progressive decision-making methodology for grid construction projects was proposed and built. First, based on the time source of decision-making and the analysis for the decision-making process, time nodes of three project group decision-making were set up, including planning base-early base, repository base-investment base and investment base-infrastructure base; second, according to the target source and target analysis of different decision points, decision-making index system of the three nodes was established separately; finally, aiming at the method source of decision-making and considering the pre-theory and preference of decision-makers, the multi-attribute decision model was built and a multi-level progressive decision-making methodology for grid construction projects was formed, which was used to carry out an empirical research for grid construction project group.(4) For the collaborative risk in a single project decision-making process, a three-dimensional and whole-process collaborative risk control methodology was proposed and constructed on the basis on the MP-NPT-RAM (Milestone Planning-Network Planning Technique-Responsibility Assignment Matrix). Collaborative risk sources in a single project process management mainly reflect in the responsibility risk, information risk and schedule risk. In order to integrate the risk control of grid projects into the whole process of project management, a three-dimensional structural MP-NPT-RAM (time, responsibility, information) and whole-process collaborative risk control thinking for grid construction projects was proposed:design 74 milestone nodes of power grid construction projects by analyzing the management process of a single grid project; construct the responsibility assignment matrix by analyzing responsible departments of each node; design input and output information and document specification of each node on the analysis of information needs of each node; establish the immediately before and immediately after timing control relationship of each node on the analysis of time relationship of each node. All of them constitute a method system with a high degree of integration between fine process management and risk control of grid construction projects. Finally, illustrate the effectiveness and practicality of the method system by the actual case. |