Research On Life Cycle Risk Management Model And Informantion System Of Main Equipment In Grid

The power grid has become an important hub between power generation and power users since the electric institution was reformed gradually. And the State Grid played an important role in sending the electricity, peaking the shaving and so on, especially in the summer peaking. As the fundation of the power grid, the main equipment in grid can optimize the resource configuration. As a result, a litte risk in the main equipment management can influnce the grid operation dramatically. And from the perspective of life cycle, the study on risk management model and informantion system of main equipment in grid has been an important issue of grid construction.(1) Combining the importance of equipment management, we analyze the backgroud, the significance, the researches about life cycle management as well as the risk management. And the life cycle risk management theories of equipment have been studied and summarized, including life cycle theory, risk and risk elements transmission theory.(2) Based on the Hall Three-dimensional structure, including knowledgement dimension, time dimension and logistic dimension, and combining the project risk elements transmission theory proposed by the Li Cun-bin’s team, a three-dimensional model for life cycle risk management of main equipment in grid has been improved fistly which gave the life cycle dimension, the risk management process dimension and the risk management method dimension. Among them, the life cycle dimension included construction period, operation and maintenance period as well as transformation and scrapping period. The risk management process dimension was consist of risk identification, risk assessment and risk countermeasures. The risk management method dimension included subjective analysis method, statistical simulation method and intelligent analytical method.(3) As for the risk management of equipment construction period, we especially analyzed three aspects, including the choose in the equipment suppliers, the equipment selection as well as the risk management of equipment installation. In the research of risk assessment about equipment suppliers, introducing the gray system theory to construct the risk assessment index system and using the trapezoidal fuzzy number to buliding the risk assessment model to avoid the uncertainty of linguistic assessment. In the research of chosing in equipment, from the angle of equipment life cycle cost management, the System Dynamics was used to analyze the chosing model based on the cost of life cycle. In the study of equipment installation risk management, the path coefficient analysis was introduced to eliminate the less coralation indexes and a simple and practical index system was built. And then, combined the subjective intuition fuzzy set theory and the objective entropy weight method, a risk evaluation model was given using the intuitionistic fuzzy entropy weight method, which has realized the integration of qualitative methods and quantitative methods. At the end of this chapter, we presented the grid main equipment construction risk control measures, especially about the suppliers’risk control and financial risk control of construction and installation.(4) As for the operation and maintenance period of main equipment, the simplied function of Rough Sets was used to simplify the original indexes of power transformer operation, and then, combined the D-S Evidence Theory to build the transformer risk level assessment model. In the study of risk decision-making of the electrical equipment condition-based maintenance, cloud model has been used to solve the fuzziness and randomness of the uncertain linguistic sets in the progress of decision-making. At the same time, grey correlation degree has been used to improve the TOPSIS. A decision-making of electrical equipment condition-based maintenance based on cloud model and improved TOPSIS method has been proposed which has been proved to be correct and feasible. At last, we bulit a risk control and feedback system of operation and maintenance period. In system, the risk control measures and control feedback were the key parts.(5) As for the transformation and scrapping period of main equipment, we combine the real working condition and give the scrapping criteria indexes including risk evaluation criteria and equipment evaluation criteria.(6) The life cycle risk manamgent information system was studied. Firstly, combined with the characteristics of the system, the system reqiurment, the overall structure design and function were analyzed. Second, system business process was designed and modeled with workflow technology. Third, On the basis of the analysis of two popular application platform, application platform were designed. And then, the design of system database libriary and model library was given, and proposed the integrated system design from construction to operation and crapping period. At last, the risk warning system was researched and gave the design scheme of equipment state prediction subsystem and risk assessment subsystem based on fuzzy optimization.