Statistical Research On The Impact Of Financial Deepening On The Upgrading Of Industrial Structure

The industrial structure is in a very important position in the economic structure, and the coordination of the whole economic structure can not be separated from the coordination and optimization of the industrial structure. Analysis of the impact of finance on the upgrading of the industrial structure has important practical significance to promote the adjustment of industrial structure through financial development. Based on the definition of the concept and connotation of financial deepening, this paper analyzed the action mechanism of finance to the upgrading of industrial structure by using the input-output model, and carried on the empirical test. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows:Firstly, in the part of theoretical analysis, based on the existing literature, this paper defined the concept and connotation of financial deepening and industrial structure, which provided theoretical basis for the analysis of the impact of finance on the upgrading of industrial structure from three aspects of money supply, financial intermediaries and financial policy tools.Secondly, in the part of index measure, this paper constructed the index of financial deepening and industrial structure. This paper constructed the index of financial deepening from three aspects of money supply, financial intermediaries and financial policy tools, and constructed index of industrial structure from two aspects of optimization of industrial structure and upgrading of industrial structure, which was used to make statistical analysis on the situation of China and provincial finance and industrial structure.Thirdly, in the part of the impact of money supply on the industrial structure, this paper studied the influence of money supply on the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure by using time series. Through the analysis, it is concluded that financial deepening was conducive to promoting the upgrading of the first industry to the second industry, which was called the first industrial structure upgrade. As the financial deepening promoted more large-scale development of production materials, and finance more supported for the development of the secondary industry, so the financial deepening did not promote the second industrial upgrading, which shows that in the early stages of industrial development, finance was conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure, with the development of the industry to a certain stage and the expansion of the financial scale, the marginal effect of finance on the adjustment of industrial structure had a certain weakening. Finance promoted the optimization of industrial structure, and the optimization of industrial structure promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure, therefore the finance promoted the upgrading of industrial structure by promoting the optimization of industrial structure, that is by promoting the industrial production efficiency (technical progress) and the coordinated development of various industries.Fourthly, in the part of the impact of financial intermediaries on the upgrading of industrial structure, this paper studied the influence of financial intermediaries on the upgrading of industrial structure based on provincial data. First, the static panel analysis was conducted. Next the dynamic panel model was used to examine the endophytism of variables. Then the threshold effect was tested by the panel threshold model. In the static panel, in order to obtain a better fitting effect, this paper constructed model and compared the fitting results distinguishing different situations of whether to add the time items, whether to add the section variables, whether to add the cross items, etc. The study conclusion was drawed according to the optimal choice of the fitted value. The conclusion obtained by static panel analysis is that, from choice of model, on the whole the fitting effect of adding time trend items model is better than that of non time trend items, the fitting effect of adding section variables is better than the fitting effect without section items, the fitting effect of adding cross items is better than the fitting effect of non cross items. It shows that the industrial structure had its own development law. The financial deepening degree of different regions was different, which had different influence on the industrial structure. Finance more depended on the technological progress to realize the impact on the upgrading of the industrial structure. From the comparison of each period, the proportion of loans in these two stages of 1952-1977 and 1978-1989 promoted the upgrading of industrial structure through technological progress, but did not promote the upgrading of industrial structure through technological progress in 1990-2013, which shows that with the expansion of the financial scale and technology development to a certain extent, the promotion role of finance on the upgrading of the industrial structure through technical progress had a certain weakening. The financial deepening coefficients of the endogenous test section are not as obvious as the static panel to promote the industrial structure, and the coefficients of first order lag of industrial structure are mostly positive, which indicate that industrial structure of the previous period had a significant positive impact on that of the latter stage, the industrial structure had a certain inertia and viscosity. The development law of the industrial structure was more obvious than the effect of finance on the industrial structure. Therefore, it can not only rely on finance to achieve the adjustment of industrial structure. It is need to use other means such as policies to amend the development direction of the industrial structure. Financial deepening was more to promote the increasing of employees number in the high-tech industry. Financial deepening mainly produced direct promoting effect to the the proportion of enterprises, prime operating revenue and export delivery value in the high-tech industry rather than produced promoting effect through technological progress, which indicates that export product added values were not high and the support degree of technology to export was not enough in our country, in addition also shows that the transformations of scientific and technological innovation and profitability were not strong in China’s high-tech industry. Therefore, finance need strengthen supports for technological innovation transformation and profitability of high-tech industry. In the part of the threshold effect test, it was concluded that the effect of financial deepening on the industrial structure depends on the level of technology. When the technology developed to a certain level, financial deepening played more roles in promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. From the various indicators of financial intermediaries, the promotion effect of financial intermediary scale index on the upgrading of industrial structure was more obvious than that of efficiency index. Therefore, we should improve the resource allocation efficiency of financial intermediaries to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.Fifthly, in the part of the impact of financial policy tools on industrial structure upgrading, financial policy tools affected industrial structure adjustment. Interest rates, exchange rates, international capital flows impacted on the industrial structure upgrading directly or through fixed asset investment, import and export trade. The management of foreign exchange market can be strengthened appropriately when the price reflected by marketization of exchange rate is attacked largely by the foreign capital or is greatly deviated from the target of economic development. International capital flows are affected by international factors. It is also need to use appropriate methods to regulate the international capital flows.Compared with previous studies, the characteristics or innovations of this paper lie in:(1) In the method, traditional input-output method usually do not consider financial factor. In this paper, the financial factor was introduced into the input-output model to analyze the action mechanism of finance on industry structure, which was tested by the empirical analysis method. (2) In the construction of the model and index, the industrial structure indicators were constructed from two aspects of industrial optimization and industrial upgrading, and the relevant indicators were introduced to the model for analysis. Industrial structure optimization index included the index of industrial production efficiency and the index of industrial coordination degree. Industrial structure upgrading index included the index of three industrial structure and the index of high-tech industrial structure. In the past, the researches on the coordination of various industries were usually based on the the output of physical capital or the output of human capital. This paper combined with two aspects of the physical capital and human capital to analyze the situation of industrial coordination from the perspective of total factor productivity, and to construct the index of industrial coordination degree based on the index of total factor productivity and the index of industrial deviation degree. (3) In the estimation of fixed capital stock, fixed capital stock data are need to measure total factor productivity index and industry coordination degree index. The existing literature rarely used financial data to estimate the fixed capital stock. Differently from previous studies, this paper combined with the financial data of listed companies and the relevant data of China’s national statistical accounting to estimate the fixed capital stock on the basis of the perpetual inventory method.