| Due to iron and steel industry in China occupies an extremely important position in the economic structure, the safety of the iron ore supply not only has very important significance on the stable operation and development of China’s steel industry, but also on the sustainable development of China’s overall economic and social stability. Iron ore is the second important production raw material in earth. The importance of iron ore resources is same as oil in China’s economy. At present, China’s steel production is given priority to long process, and more than 90% Ferrum is smelted from iron ore. The reality of low grade and high cost of development in China’s iron ore resource forces China’s iron and steel enterprise to purchase a large number of imported iron ore, which leads to China’s iron ore external dependency is rising year by year. Especially after entered the first 10 years in 21st century, it has become a norm that more than 80%of iron ore imports from overseas. Meanwhile,, the supply of overseas iron ore low-cost monopoly pattern has been formed, China’s overseas mine of rights and interests almost completely annihilated too. More than 80% of China’s import iron ore comes from international mining giants, so the import source is over-concentrated. Many new uncertain risks such as political and financial feature of iron ore are increasing, and the price volatility of iron ore and supply disruption risk is difficult to avoid in the future, so looking for a method to guarantee the sustained and stable supply for China’s iron ore resources is imminent.This paper combined with the project of "China’s industrial structure adjustment under resource constraints" in Development ResearchCenter of Council State to select topic, and based on the present situation of China’s iron ore supply security, using the experience of Japan steel power supply of iron ore, starting from the key uncertainty factors in market, on the basis of a large number of empirical investigation and comprehensive analysis, using literature research, theoretical analysis, comparative study, model prediction and the combination of empirical and normative method, described the influence of uncertainty factors in the process of the implementation of iron ore strategic reserves in China, and eventually formed a systemic China’s iron ore strategic reserves strategy. Combined with the research purpose, this paper has carried on the following aspects research:(1)On the basis of comprehensive analysis of global and China’s iron ore resources distribution, the characteristics and the present situation of commerce, this paper found out the reason of potential safety hazard about China’s iron ore unreasonable supply structure and the high external dependence degree, and proposed that China should buy iron ore or mineral products directly, which means that setting up iron ore strategic reserves is the only effective way at present stage.(2)Combined with current China’s iron ore supply pattern, proposed and designed prospect analysis prediction method, then uses it to forecast the crude steel output in China, and the accuracy is high. The short-term forecast result as the calibration standard provides quantitative data support for the long-term forecast. Through the iron balance backstepping method, calculated the demand of iron ore after 5-10years will keep on 1.1-1.2 billion tons in each year (Fe 62%).(3)Refer to the international petroleum reserve experience and Japanese iron ore supply system, in order to realize consumer surplus profit maximization as the goal that the government serve the society, based on the basic problem that iron ore strategic reserves must face, weighed the disruption risk loss and reserve profits in iron ore supply system, this paper designed a prediction model that is the optimal scale of China’s iron ore strategic reserve. Test the stability of the model from a series of uncertainty factors of interrupt probability and interrupt scale of the iron ore supply, iron ore price elasticity, then the result is that the interrupt scale and iron ore price elasticity are the main influence factors to the optimal scale of iron ore strategic reserve. Forecasts suggest that if occur an iron ore supply disruption crisis which interrupted scale is 21 days every 10 years, China need to reserve 310 million tons iron ore.(4)According to classical strategic oil reserves, in order to reach the goal as the minimum cost of iron ore reserves and the expected risk loss, this paper designs a stochastic dynamic programming model-the model of China’s iron ore strategic reserve (SIOR), which could calculate the scale of purchase, release, and cover in China’s iron ore strategic reserve. Calculation results show that, if there is not interrupt in future, China should build 232 million tons iron ore strategic reserve, and reserve 105 million tons iron ore in 2016, then gradually reduce the annual capacity to the optimal scale in 2020; if there is a higher probability and more serious interrupt in future, China should build 310 million tons iron ore strategic reserve, and reserve 115 million tons iron ore in 2016, then gradually reduce the annual capacity to the optimal scale in 2020.(5)Point out essential means to solve China’s iron ore supply safety problem is that builds an appropriate scale Iron ore strategic reserve from the national level, and come up with a series implementation strategy suggestions.(6)The conclusion of this paper has great significance for the stable operation of iron and steel industry and related industries in China, which could avoid the risk of iron ore trade effectively. This paper not only provides a set of quantitative research method and strategy, but also has a certain positive role to the stable and healthy development of national economy. As an important special research subject on mineral resource supply security, this paper has strong reference significance to supply security theory and making related policy strategy for other mineral resources in China.
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