Optimization Of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Under The Conditions Of Supply Disruptions

Oil is known as "floating gold", not only because of its price, but because of its impact on the modern industrial economy. As one of the world's major industrial raw materials, the stability of oil supplies has a significant impact on a country's political and economic. In the history, the oil trade friction is countless. The effect of several large oil crisis to oil importers, especially highly dependent on oil, is higher, which makes them suffered huge losses. After several times oil crisis, the European and American countries have realized the importance to build strategic oil reserve system, so in the 1970 s, the International Energy Agency(IEA) was established and member states constructed oil reserve bases and bought a lot of oil. The IEA requires each member at least reserves its oil consumption of 90 days, and when the shortage of oil reaches 7% of imports in the previous year, it can be called the supply disruption. This means that the threats to oil security should be a state of emergency, and necessary emergency measures should be started to deal with oil crisis.The main contents of this paper can be divided into three parts:(1) including the study of oil reserves optimization;(2) the study of strategic petroleum reserve scheduling optimization;(3) the study of international experience and China's strategy. The first part and second part belong to quantitative research, which can obtain optimal reserves and optimal scheduling scheme under different scenarios. The third part belongs to qualitative research, which provides us with solutions to the problem we faced with by the case study of the United States, Japan and Singapore. As follows:(1) The study of oil reserves optimizationThe strategic petroleum reserve dynamic programming model was established by the cost and social benefit analysis of the strategic petroleum reserve. And the source of parameters is analyzed. In addition, the paper simulates and analyzes the factors of strategic oil reserves by MATLAB(oil price elasticity of demand, average oil interrupt size), and obtains optimal reserves under different conditions, which provide a theoretical basis for policy recommendations proposed.(2) The study of strategic petroleum reserve scheduling optimizationFirstly, the oil gap of demand is determined by evaluating China's oil demand and quantity demanded. Then several kinds of mode of transportation for scheduling are confirmed by evaluating the release capacity of strategic oil reserve. In addition, the model is established, which is solved by minimum cost maximum flow theory and Lingo. At last, the optimal mode of transport and transport routes of oil are obtained and specific recommendations about China's strategic oil reserve bases and modes of transport are given.(3)The study of international experiences and China's strategyLiterature researches have been conducted on the stocking, distribution, optimal reserve size and location of petroleum reserves. In addition, the United States(a member of IEA with well-developed petroleum reserve system), Japan and Singapore(countries depending heavily on crude oil imports in the Asia-Pacific region) have been selected for case study to summarize their successful experiences. On the basis, this paper discusses the existing problems in China's strategic petroleum reserve system. By tracking pathways for construction of the strategic petroleum reserve system in developed nations, this paper proposes the optimal solution to cope with specific conditions in China, namely, by establishing sophisticated laws and regulations for strategic petroleum systems, optimizing allocation of stocking sites, clarifying policies related to stocking and distribution of petroleum reserves, constructing multiple-element system for stocking of petroleum reserves, and securing reliable and diversified oil suppliers. The research conclusions can provide valuable references for construction of strategic petroleum reserve systems.