Research On Direct Gains From Trade And Its Influencing Factors About China-ASEAN Trade In Manufactured Goods

China’s export market mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States. Therefore, China is facing more and more trade barriers, export growth is slowing. At the same time, China’s economic growth mainly depends on export expansion. As a result, China’s export needs to explore new more markets. ASEAN is increasingly important export market for China, with the further development of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the volume of trade between China and ASEAN showed a trend of growth. With the further development of East Asian regional production network, as the important economies in the production network, trade ties between China and ASEAN countries is increasingly close, especially share of the intermediate products trade increased. However, China has trade deficit in China-ASEAN bilateral trade in mainly manufactured goods. According to the traditional trade theory on gains from trade, trade deficit means the loss of direct gains from trade. The expanding of China-ASEAN trade in manufactured goods means that the more trade deficit in manufactured goods between China-ASEAN, the more loss of direct gains from trade China will face. The purpose of this paper is to study China’s direct gains from trade in manufactured goods with ASEAN, and the influencing factors of direct gains from trade on China-ASEAN bilateral trade in manufactured goods. And then, some suggestions will be provided.This paper is included in five sections:The first section is the research basis, including introduction and literature review. Introduction mainly elaborated the research background and significance, the research methods and framework, and possible innovations. Literature review summarizes the existing related literature about international trade theory on gains from trade, and the research about direct gains from trade of China-ASEAN bilateral trade in manufactured goods. Therefore, the proper theoretical basis and measure of direct gains from trade can be found, the research starting points can be provided.The second section is the trade status quo. This part illustrates mainly through statistical data the development trend of China-ASEAN trade in manufactured goods, composition of trade, and national distribution of trade, the trend of trade deficit, major deficit products, and the main sources of trade deficit. This section also summarizes the characteristics of China-ASEAN trade in manufactured goods.The third section is the measure of direct gains from trade. First, this part calculates the trade value-added and trade value-added ratio about Chinese manufactured goods exports to ASEAN, and then, compares the trade value-added and trade value-added ratio about China-ASEAN 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods with the results about China-BRICS 4 bilateral trade in manufactured goods, and the results about China-Developed countries 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods. Second, this part also calculates the 13 industries trade value-added and the 13 industries trade value-added ratio about Chinese manufactured goods exports to ASEAN, and then, compares the 13 industries trade value-added and the 13 industries trade value-added ratio about China-ASEAN 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods with the results about China-BRICS 4 bilateral trade in manufactured goods, and the results about China-Developed countries 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods.The fourth section is the empirical analysis about influencing factors of direct gains from trade. This part analysis the influencing factors of direct gains from trade on China-ASEAN bilateral trade in manufactured goods. Moreover, this part compares the influencing factors of direct gains from trade on China-ASEAN bilateral trade in manufactured goods, with the influencing factors of direct gains from trade on China-BRICS 4 bilateral trade in manufactured goods, and the influencing factors of direct gains from trade on China-Developed countries 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods.The fifth section is the conclusion and suggestions. This part summarizes main conclusions of this research, and gives some suggestions. Finally, this part points out the follow-up research work can be performed.This research gets the following conclusions:First, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam are the main export markets for Chinese manufactured goods. Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines are China’s main source of imports of manufactured goods. Machinery and transportation equipment, and chemical products are the main products of the China-ASEAN trade in manufactured goods. The trade in machinery and transportation equipment is mainly included parts and components for electrical and electronic goods. There is trade deficit on China-ASEAN bilateral trade in chemical products, and machinery and transportation equipment, the trend of trade deficit about China-ASEAN bilateral trade in these two kinds of products is growing. Trade deficit on China-ASEAN bilateral trade in manufactured goods mainly comes from Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines.Second, trade value-added from China-Singapore bilateral trade in manufactured goods is the highest, the second high is from China-Thailand, China-Malaysia bilateral trade in manufactured goods, and the lowest is from China-Vie Nam bilateral trade in manufactured goods. Trade value-added ratio from China-ASEAN 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods shows a declining trend. This means China’s direct gains from trade depend on quantity expansion of export.Third, trade value-added from China-Developed countries 6 bilateral trades in manufactured goods is the highest, and mainly from China-Japan, China-Korea, China-United States, and China-Germany bilateral trade in manufactured goods. Trade value-added from China-Singapore, China-Malaysia, and China-Thailand bilateral trade in manufactured goods, is higher than the result from China-BRICS 4 bilateral trade in manufactured goods, and lower than the result from China-Developed countries 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods. Trade value-added ratio from China-Developed countries 6 bilateral trades in manufactured goods is the highest, and mainly from China-Japan, China-Korea, China-United States, and China-Germany bilateral trade in manufactured goods. Trade value-added ratio from China-Singapore, China-Malaysia, and China-Thailand bilateral trade in manufactured goods is the second high. Except China-Russia bilateral trade, trade value-added ratio from the bilateral trade between China and other BIRCS countries is lowest.Fourth, 13 industries trade value-added from China-Singapore, China-Malaysia, and China-Thailand bilateral trade in manufactured goods is highest among the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries, especially, 6 key industries trade value-added. China can obtain many direct gains from trade from China-Singapore, China-Malaysia, and China-Thailand bilateral trade in communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment, and chemical products. 13 industries trade value-added from China-Vie Nam bilateral trade in manufactured goods is lowest. There shows a downward trend on 6 key industries trade value-added from China-Singapore, China-Malaysia, and China-Thailand bilateral trade in manufactured goods. As to China, it means the efficiency of obtaining direct gains from trade on 13 industries trade is low. China depends on expansion of export volume to obtain direct gains from trade.Fifth, 6 key industries trade value-added from China-Japan, China-Korea, China-United States, and China-Germany bilateral trade in manufactured goods is higher than the result from China-ASEAN 6 and China-BRICS 4 bilateral trade. 6 key industries trade value-added ratio from China-BRICS 4 bilateral trade in manufactured goods is lower than the result from China-Singapore, China-Malaysia, and China-Thailand bilateral trade. On the other hand, 6 key industries trade value-added ratio from China-Japan, China-Korea, China-United States, and China-Germany bilateral trade in manufactured goods is higher than the result from China-ASEAN 6 bilateral trade. 6 key industries trade value-added ratio from China-ASEAN 6 bilateral trade is higher than the result from China-BRICS 4 bilateral trade.Sixth, the common main influencing factors of direct gains from trade are the degree of specialization of global value chain, the differences of comparative advantage. In addition, controlling of GVC by multinational corporations is one main influencing factor of direct gains from trade for China-ASEAN 6, and China-Developed countries 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods. The differences of scale economy is one main influencing factor of direct gains from trade for China-BRICS 4, and China-Developed countries 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods.The main innovations as following:First, this paper calculates direct gains from trade about China-ASEAN bilateral trade in manufactured goods by trade value-added. Accords with the characteristics of China-ASEAN bilateral trade in manufactured goods, trade value-added can more accurately reflect the direct gains from trade obtained by China.Second, this paper calculates 13 industries trade value-added and 13 industries trade value-added ratio, especially, 6 key industries trade value-added and 6 key industries trade value-added ratio, by using Chinese Input-Output table. This analysis can accurately know the direct gains from trade obtained by China mainly from which industries.Third, this paper compares trade value-added, trade value-added ratio, industries trade value-added, and industries trade value-added among China-ASEAN 6, China-BRICS 4, and China-Developed countries 6 bilateral trade in manufactured goods. Moreover, the paper also compares influencing factors of direct gains from trade among Chinese bilateral trade in manufactured goods with different types of countries. Therefore, this study is helpful to know the direct gains from trade obtained by China, mainly from which type of countries, and the differences between influencing factors of direct gains from trade.