Analysis Of Factors Affecting China To ASEAN Exports Of Manufactured Goods

Since ancient times,ASEAN has been linked to China’s territory,bordered by Yunnan and Guangxi provinces,and surrounded by the South China Sea with Hainan and Guangdong provinces.Both sides have obvious advantages in economic and trade geography.In addition,they share many common points in folk culture,living environment and development degree,and complement each other in natural resources endowment.These factors also make the two sides have a solid and longterm international trade.Foundation.After China’s accession to the WTO,the trade volume between China and ASEAN has been growing on the whole.With the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on January 1,2010,bilateral trade has been further developed.ASEAN has gradually become China’s third largest trading partner after the European Union and the United States.By the end of 2017,its 10 countries had a total population of 650 million and total GDP of 2.77 trillion US dollars.For China,its trade status is very important.On the other hand,due to the ongoing trade war between China and the United States,it seems that China is looking for other strategic partners in the global arena besides the United States.Especially important,therefore,ASEAN’s export trade to China has become more and more important.According to the latest data released by the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database in 2017,China’s total export of industrial manufactured goods to ASEAN countries is US$2,139.827 billion,of which US$248.071 billion is exported to ASEAN.China’s export of industrial manufactured goods to ASEAN accounts for China’s total industrial manufactured goods.11.59% of exports,while ASEAN’s total imports of manufactured goods in 2017 amounted to US$871.676 billion,of which the proportion of manufactured goods from China was as high as 28.46%.It can be seen that the trade dependence between the two sides is increasing,and manufactured goods have become one of the most important commodity categories in China’s export trade to ASEAN.This paper will also discuss China’s industrial system to ASEAN countries from 2002 to 2017.The current situation of finished product export and the specific reasons for the fluctuation.It is worth noting that China’s export of industrial manufactured goods to ASEAN countries has declined since it reached its peak in 2015.Under the background of the uncertain international economic and trade situation,the rise of trade protectionism and the rising production cost of products,it is necessary to explore the influencing factors of China’s export growth of industrial manufactured goods to ASEAN.On the basis of empirical analysis,the paper puts forward some pertinent suggestions to promote China’s export growth of industrial manufactured goods to ASEAN.To tap the greater potential of ASEAN’s exports and realize bilateral trade cooperation can reach a higher level.From the perspective of China,this paper makes a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the influencing factors of the export trade of industrial manufactured goods between China and ASEAN through a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods.Firstly,the historical situation of the trade of industrial manufactured goods between China and ASEAN is sorted out in chronological order,and the industrial system between China and ASEAN is analyzed through more conventional descriptive and statistical methods.The quantity,scale and structure of the import and export of finished products are analyzed to reveal the historical origin of the development of the two industrial manufactured goods trade.At the same time,the existing problems in the development of the two industrial manufactured goods trade are analyzed by induction and summary method.Then,the specific data of China’s export of industrial manufactured goods to ten ASEAN countries from 2002 to 2017 are selected,and the empirical analysis method is combined.In the third part of the article,we use the fixed market share CMS model to empirically analyze the reasons for the fluctuation of China’s industrial manufactured goods export to ASEAN countries.Then we use the panel data of eight variables related to China’s industrial manufactured goods export to ten ASEAN countries from 2002 to 2017 to empirically explore the influencing factors of China’s industrial manufactured goods export to ASEAN with the trade gravity model.Based on the empirical analysis of the impact of various factors on China’s export trade of industrial manufactured goods to ASEAN countries by introducing the trade gravity model with relevant variables,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve China’s export trade of industrial manufactured goods to ASEAN countries.