Study On The Risk-Averse Mechanism Of Capacity Decision Based On Trust Risk

Market competition has been transferring from enterprise to whole supply chain since supply chain management became hot topic in 1990 s. The cooperation between supply chain members, by capacity information sharing, is always very important way. As standing on different position in the market, they can get more pricise about market by information sharing. At the same time it is also obvious that there is risk during cooperation, so efficient mechanism for sharing is essential to supply chain members.The above mentioned is the target of this essay. It focuses on “one supplier- one manufacture” as study object, by importing trust and risk averse mechanism, modeling with supply chain members’ expected efficiency, to get optimized decision by game theory for members, then analyze key parameters in model, comparing relationship with parameters and expected efficiency, to find best parameter in decision making. Finally with empirical data in real case, we can prove that it is efficient way in supply chain members’ decision.The dissertation is divided into four parts, total seven chapters, now we give you rough introduction for these chapters.First part is introduction and related paper, including chapter ONE and chapter TWO.Chapter ONE, introduction. We focus on research background, the target, content and methodlogy, to introduce whole idea and structure of this dissertation.Chapter TWO, the summary of related research. The chapter is comprised of other research work by summary, analysis, and valuation, based on these, we can find our theory base. We are focusing on information sharing and decision-making with trust and risk-averase mechanism, according to our knowledge, there is not many research work in this field. Our research is related with supply chain contract design, capacity decision, trust between supply chain members, supply chain risk management and risk-avearse mechanism.Second part is construction of the dissertation, by import trust and risk averse mechanism, we calculate expected efficiency of supply chain members, this part includes chapter THREE and chapter FOUR.Chapter THREE, we discuss capacity decision of supply chain members with trust. As random variable, it is first time for trust to import into the model in domestic research, we study supply chain(one supplier VS one manufacture) as target, simulating the dicision-making process with turst. After the deduction of model, we find there is no equilibrium for both sides to make decision. That is why we need to import risk-avease mechanism into the model, so we show to you for chapter four.Chapter FOUR, by import risk-avearse mechanism into the model, such as insurance and price compensation mechanism, we find we can find the equilibrium for both sides. After analyzing the two mechanism, we can prove that risk-avease mechanism, which is one of insurance mechanism. Finally we use numerical examples to testify the feasibility of these mechanisms. The all mentioned above can be theory and data support for management to make dicision.Third part is application of model and empirical research, including chapter FIVE and chapter SIX.Chapter FIVE, based on former four chapters, we compare different risk-averase mechanism between supply chain members, at the same time focus on parameters of capacity decision involved. By numeric study, we consider the influence of only parameter, also mix of parameters, and summarize the total situation of parameters, and find the best mechanism under every market condition for supply chain members. All this can act as important reference for supply chain management to make their choice when they need to do communicate each other.Chapter SIX, after all research mentioned above, we import trust and risk-avearse mechanism into capacity decision of supply chain when they cooperate, we find basic understanding of influence for trust and risk-averase mechanism. The main content of chapter six, we try to testify the feasibility of the mechanism by real empirical research. Actually, to apply our research into practice effectively is what we want to do most, we need to combine the theory research with real world, which is our final goal for the dissertation.Fourth and final part is summary of the disserration, including chapter SEVEN.Chapter SEVEN, also last chapter for my dissertation, it to summary and looking for the future. The chapter we focus on summary former research from chapter one to six, and find the flaw among the paper, and provide the direction for fuure research.The mentioned above is research framework and rough introduction for every chapters, it shows that importing trust and risk averse mechanism is efficient way to help management of enterprise to make dicision. The main innovation points are as follows.1. To create capacity dicision mechanism with modeling trust as random variable. During research history about trust, most of research is focusing on empirical. First researcher will divide trust into several aspects, and send survey to people to get enough replies, then do statistics with their replies. But few researchers will think about modeling trust, we try firstly modeling trust as random variable and import it into decision making as key factor directly. As trust is assigned from 0 to 1, so it can cover total distrust to total trust, we can evaluate its role directly in the decision model.2. To try coordinating supply chain member expected efficiency by risk averse mechanism. Risk-averse mechanism is methodology or rules to control risk in controllable range with setting limitation. The import of trust will lead motal risk in the decision model, so if without risk-averase mechanism the decision model will fail. In order to coordinate expected efficiency, we try to import risk averse mechanism, including insurance and price-compensation mechanism, by coordination we can get the optimized efficiency for supply chain members. It has been proved by theoretical and numerical study that will help supply chain members to maximize their profit, we can find optimized decision for supply chain members.3. To expand orthogonal test in the field of management science to find best parameters in model. For model with multi-parameters, we import orthogonal test, which is common used in experiment, by assign parameter to find optimized dicision. It will help us to find relationship between mechanism and parameters, and help management to find best way during dicision.