The Color Trend Forecasting Of International Menswear Based On Wave Principle And Prediction Methods

Fashion color forecasting is a practical subject. Exact color prediction can not only help fashion brands realize the development of fashion market, but also advance its independent research ability. Recently, most fashion companies in China use the subjective judgment which is a mainstream method now to predict future fashion color. But, as those brands are weak having a saying in the fashion field and do not have enough experience of trend research, this subjective judgment is usually fallibility. Meanwhile, the most influential trend research institutes in fashion have very tight security measures about the forecasting method. Fashion companies in China can just only get the final trend book from them, which may have a big problem to meet the brand's own needs and characteristic. As a result, based on the analysis of historical fashion color resources, summarizing and proposing an effective law of development for fashion color is very helpful. Establish the quantitative forecasting for fashion color can help fashion brands solve such above problems and improve the veracity of prediction. Based on this background, this paper is directed at provide an objective quantitative forecasting system for fashion color. As qualitative forecast demands high specialty, experience and authority, it's hard to find a way to summarize a particular method which is applicable to most fashion companies. But, quantitative forecast just need observe the objective historical data and analyze the character of its development. So, compared to the qualitative forecast, if the researcher has knowledge in fashion color and forecasting, quantitative forecast is much easier to understand.This paper selects menswear fashion color forecast as the point of penetration. Based on the existing fashion color prediction methods, combining wave principle and relative prediction method, this paper builds the menswear fashion color quantitative forecasting model. This subject has3innovations:firstly, theory creation on fashion color forecasting. Introduce in the wave principle which is used in the economics. Based on the fashion color cycle and the aesthetic psychology of male consumer, this paper supposes a menswear fashion color wave principle. This principle can help researcher understand the development of fashion color and be guidance for concrete prediction. Secondly, the creation on forecasting method. This paper uses multiple function models and chooses the most suitable one as the prediction model according to the menswear fashion color wave principle and the error size of each function models. This can enhance the accuracy of prediction. Thirdly, the technical creation on fashion color numeration. By introducing in the computer color system, this paper enriches the translation method through color image to data, simplifies the translation program and enhances the accuracy of color sampling. This menswear fashion color forecasting model uses red hue of historical menswear color information as the subject of experiment and finally verifies the accuracy of menswear fashion color wave principle. By using the exact prediction method, this subject builds the menswear fashion color quantitative forecasting model. The research frames and methods in this paper are as follows:At first, this paper studies the basic knowledge of fashion color and fashion color forecast, illuminate the concept and characteristic of fashion color and analyze the elements which has great impact on fashion color. This section emphasizes on the fashion color cycle theory and points out that fashion color changes rhythmically. Although this cycle doesn't have fixed circulation time, but the basic form of color cycle is changeless. The further study of this color cycle becomes the basis of menswear color principle in this paper. The second, the author analyzes the methods and channel to obtain fashion color information and introduces the fashion color forecasting institutes and their prediction processing. From the comparison of advantage and disadvantage between qualitative forecast and quantitative forecast, quantitative forecast for fashion color prediction is adjudged more practical. These papers also points out that assures the objectivity of the data and select a suitable forecasting model is very important to improve accuracy.Chapter Three pays attention to the digital color system. To build such a system is an effective way to record, consult historical fashion color information and can provide more convenient data for color forecasting. This chapter first studies the theory of color and color numeration system. It is divided into color circle, color solid and computer color system and so on. The author analyzes the numeration method of each color system and points out that there is great difference between each color numeration system. The traditional color solid is very convenient and intuitionist for understanding, but very complex for transformation. Color chromatograph is easy for color searching and operation, but the rules for numeration is lack of unity. The computer system can transfer color image to very simple data and is convenient for the calculation, but it also has the problem of understanding. So, to choose an appropriate color system according to the characteristic of data and the demand of prediction is very important to achieve a efficient and convenient data transformation. This paper chooses HSB color system as the tool for image transformation. In the second section of this chapter, the author studies the digital image processing and according to the3level requirements, built a digital color system using computer, software and relative color system.In the forth chapter, the author proposes the menswear color wave principle. Wave principle in economics was studied and inspired by this principle, this paper propose wave principles for fashion degree, hue, saturation and brightness which is based on the study of fashion color cycle and research of male consumer investigation. Those four wave principle are basically composed of drive wave and adjust wave. The wave principle for fashion degree and hue are very similar to the original wave theory. This paper concludes them into2structures, the first is composed by5drive wave and3adjust wave and the second is composed by3drive wave and3adjust wave. As the fluctuate of saturation and brightness is affected by season, the vibration is quick and regular. In this paper, the author supposes the basic wave form is composed by1drive wave and1adjust wave according to the consumer investigation. As no such theory and principle about fashion color change exists before this paper, this menswear color wave principle must be authenticated by historical color data before the application. Also, this wave principle is not a concrete forecasting model, but it can provide a relationship for fashion color prediction and help the stuff understanding the position of the color each season when compared to the whole color development. By using its principle we can forecast the direction of the future color development and with a suitable forecasting model to calculate the exact data of the future color under the principle's guide.The chapter5introduces the knowledge of forecasting and prediction method. Firstly, describes the concept of forecast and analyzes the most common categories and method of forecast. Secondly, the author illustrates the prediction extrapolation models and chooses it as the final model for the menswear fashion color forecast experiment in this paper.The last chapter is the experiment for fashion color forecast according to the research and achievement based on the anterior chapter and proposes a menswear fashion color forecasting system which is based on wave principle. This chapter first describes the method and processing of this prediction system, including:(1) Building the digital menswear fashion color database.(2) Verifying tne menswear fashion color wave principle.(3) Predicting the direction of future according to this wave principle.(4) Selecting a forecasting model.(5) Predicting and verifying. Secondly, this paper uses the HSB numeration system to transfer color image into data and builds a digital menswear fashion color database for this experiment. In the experiment, the author chooses red hue as experimental object and predicts and validates the data of popularity value, hue, brightness and saturation according to this forecasting process. Through the analysis of historical fashion color data, this paper finds that the menswear fashion color wave principle actions accord with the development of historical color data. Based on the characteristic of historical data, this paper adjusts and amends the original wave form. Using it to judge the developing period of each color, designers can easily find the direction of the future color movements. Then using it as the standard to choose the exact prediction method and calculates the data of predictive point. The experimental result shows:this prediction model possesses very high accuracy after the decision of menswear fashion color wave principle. After the combination and translation of these3color elements, the predicted color is very similar to the actual result. This paper finally proved the correctness and practicability of this principle and prediction model.