Mine Safety Nonlinear Dynamics Evaluation Model And Its Application

In this paper, the important and basic position was analyzed about the coal industry to the national economy, and the key-point of the coal safety to the continuous development of the coal industry was pointed. According to the problems existing in the safety management and assessment, the research project of the safety assessment based on the non-linear dynamics in the coal mines was proposed and studied, and the author抯 original idea and methods was given out. At same time, the study results were applied in the practice samples, and the prospective results were attained.The production system underground in coal mine is a disaster system which consists of the human-machinery-environment and the extremely complex horizons, the main disaster types are methane, dust, water, fire, roof and machinery in it. The mechanism of the disasters is different, but the factors initiating the disasters were interrelated each other. The disasters described above may take place at any time and every where, and affected from one to others. According to the structure features of the calamity in coal mine, we have to take the assessment to the hazard degree of the system, and previously acquire the effect of the possible results of the accidents to the whole production system, so that the technology and management administrators can adopt the measures, and the aim of the safety production will be obtained. The key problem to the safety management and control is to find and establish the scientific and reasonable safety evaluation models, and to combine the models with the practice production.Many problems in the safety system in coal mine are non-linear. The traditional and the previously function-setting evaluation methods have appear their localization, and the problems of the fixing and changing weight could not also be solved perfectly. In this paper, based on the analysis to the non-linear characteristics of the disaster system in coal mine, the adaptability combining the mine safety assessment with the non-linear gray theory and the artificial neural network technology was discussed. The mechanism and disciplinarian of the disasters in the mine were by the numbers analyzed, and the model reflection the features of the accidents was established. Under the precondition and the principles following the comparison, science, oneness, applicability, synthesizing, split, and quantity of the indexes, and sufficiently thinking over the variety of the factors affecting the safety status of the mine, the system of the safety assessment indexes were completely constructed, and the everyviiimportant factor during the production processes was incarnated in the index system, at the same time, the original safety data table and the index quantity tables were designed and worked out. The non-linear safety assessment models were established based on the non-linear gray system theory and the artificial neural network, and the dynamic evaluation came true from the past to the present and the future. Furthermore, the intellectualized decision of the weights between the status and its factors was solved, and the actual dynamic assessment was realized. The dynamic and real-time safety data collection of the indexes was carried out in the mines, the not-easy maneuverability status of the traditional methods was changed, and the assessment method development was promoted. In the paper, the author combined the artificial neural network technology and the gray system theory with the safety information process, and supplied a new way and method for the safety management and scientific decision in the coal-mines. The prediction is to search the future developing trend according to the history, also is the recognition to the future developing tendency. The aim of the prediction is that the processing measures can be done according to the developing and changing trend. It is very important to control effectively the safety in coal-mine for the mine production and operators. The effective control and management relied on the perfected...