Dynamic-Stochastic Influence Diagrams Modeling And Simulation Approach For Naval Theater Analysis

To do theater analysis of navy and related high-level demonstration, it's necessary to manage a range of uncertainties and complex characteristics in several layers effec-tively. While Exploratory Analysis (EA) could improve quality of the analysis by ex-panding its range, it still needs support of valid analysis-model. As one optional method for EA modeling, Time-Slice Influence Diagrams (TSIDs, or called Dynamic IDs) has been effectively used in several researches, for its characters of simple, clear and run-ning fast, etc. But it still can't deal with cases that some processes need to be described detailed in the same analysis-model. To improve existing modeling method, based on TSIDs, we could provide a better alternative methodological framework for this kind of issues, especially for EA modeling.Aiming at increasing credibility of issue description by existing method, this dis-sertation enhances TSIDs as an improvement referring the Discrete Event Systems (DES) Modeling and Simulation (M&S) technology; and focuses on disposing i) how to provide a hybrid heterogeneous modeling and simulation frame; ii) how to make the syntax and semantics of the improved model specification; and iii) how to process the simulation evaluation of the improved model. It solves related problems both in theory and in technology, and discusses the influences for modeling process and model evalua-tion. The contents to research include the following parts:(1) To satisfy needs of navy theater analysis, the characteristics and application limits of existing method is discussed, the modeling requirements of campaign process in navy theater analysis are analyzed, and a hybrid heterogeneous modeling and simula-tion frame is proposed.(2) To achieve the improvement of existing method, based on the analysis of char-acters and modeling process of TSIDs, an improved method is proposed, named'Dy-namic-Stochastic Influence Diagrams (DSIDs)', taking DES M&S technologies for ref-erence. In order to make DSIDs model specification more realizing, formal method is used for specification description. After that, the simulation algorithms and the imple-mentation of their simulators are proposed.(3) To support DSIDs model evaluating, a reference framework for simulation evaluating is proposed, and the random sampling method and the evaluating stopping strategy are discussed and implemented detailed correspond with the framework.(4) To illuminate theoretics above, the design and implementation of a DSIDs M&S tool - EASim are discussed, based what an armada area defence issue demonstra-tion is carried out. In this demonstration, the characters of DSIDs and it's supporting for this kind of issue are shown, by the detailed processing of issue analysis, model build-ing and evaluating.The creative work and the primary contributions of this dissertation can be summa-rized as follows: i) proposes a hybrid heterogeneous M&S framework for theater analy- sis of navy; ii) presents a DSIDs method systemically and gives model specification and its simulation strategy detailedly, supporting the framework; and iii) promotes actualiz-ing strategy for DSIDs model simulation evaluating detailedly, especially proposes a Bayes-based multi-phases simulation frame for model eveluating, and proposes a two-stage sequential stopping procedure with parameter steady-state estimate for termi-nating simulation.To sum up, this dissertation gives an effective solution for existing theater analysis M&S frame and supporting M&S methods. The dissertation has reference values both for enriching the kinds of EA model for theater analysis of navy, and for extending the researches between IDs and M&S technology. It also could be alternative scheme to the complex issue that owning similar characters.