Research On Inter-Basin Water Transfer Forecast Optimization Operation Methods And Its Application

With the increase of population and the development of economy in China, water resource problems have become major restrictive factors for human survival and sustainable development. It becomes necessary to divert water because of uneven water distribution and unbalanced social water demand. At present, researches on interbasin water transfer operation are mainly about the design planning stage of water diversion. The planning diversion operation can not fit the actual situation because of the comprehensive diversity of interbasin water transfer and complexity of the actual operation. As many large-scale interbasin water transfer projects have been put into operation, it becomes a main problem that how to operate interbasin water transfer in real time according to available information at present.Therefore, with the research object of interbasin water transfer system, this paper studies how to establish an advanced and feasible model of interbasin water transfer real time forecast operation to solve the problems of the utilizability of forecast information and the real-time operation rules. First, this paper analyses the grading methods of GFS rainfall forecast information and its accuracy. Then, it establishes a real-time operation model of interbasin water transfer according to rainfall forecast and hydrologic forecast. At last, it distinguishes and estimates the risk and benifit of water diversion operation. The main research results are as followed:(1) Grading the short and medium term rainfall forecast information by GFS and checking the accuracy. This paper comes up with a new accuracy assessment method of medium term rainfall forecast grading with the consideration of sampling error based on finite samples when using rainfall grading probability method. And then, it provides utilizability standards of the rainfall forecast---FAS score and reliability grades in different periods, different leading time, and different grades. Research results, which can provide different grade range of rainfall and its probability in different periods for GFS users, can provide intuitive, important and valuable decision for decision makers.(2) Building BP forecast model of GFS 10-day runoff forecast. This model, which considers the relationship between rainfall and runoff, forecast 10-day runoff and its grade with soil water storage and GFS rainfall as input condition and actual 10-day inflow as output condition. The model analyses generalized soil information in earlier stage, rainfall forecast, and the utilizability and the operability of forecasting 10-day runoff.(3) Building optimizing operation model of interbasin water transfer supply and electricity generation forecast in cascading reservoirs. This model, of which the input condition is 10-day runoff forecast, uses progressive optimization algorithm to arrive at the maximum water supply and maximum generated energy with cascading reservoirs in H Basin as an object of study. Comparing with the process of conventional operation, it shows that forecast optimization operation model could enhance the utilization ratio of water resource obviously.(4) Establishing real-time operation rules of interbasin water transfer. It arrives at operation rules by decision tree while considering GFS numerical rainfall forecast and water storage of underlying surfaced during the process of interbasin water transfer making. It distributes water resource reasonably according to current state of reservoir and inflow of reception area. Operation of West to East interbasin water transfer project proves that new diversion rules could reduce water transfer quantity and surplus water quantity, and enhances the utilization rate of water resource obviously. It is better than conventional operation.(5) Coming up with risk-benefit analysis method of interbasin water transfer operation. This paper analyses risk factors and benifit factors for interbasin water transfer operation; establishes risk and benifit evaluation indicator system; arrives at integrated weights of factor indicators by optimal combination weight analysis method; calculates the integrated risk and benifit of inter-basin water transfer with integrated weights, which provides managers with a more intuitive decision-making basis.At the end, it summarizes the whole paper, and gets outlook for some further problems.