Study And Application Of Rainfall Forecast Information In The Yingna River Reservoir

Water is indispensable to the production of human life resources, will bring floods droughts and other disasters. The temporal and spatial distribution of water resources in China is uneven, and the characteristics of water resources benefit and harm are particularly prominent. Reservoir operation as an important non engineering measure to achieve the goal of flood control and flood prevention, to a certain extent, it slows down the contradiction of the water resources. Along with the continuous improvement of the accuracy of ensemble rainfall forecasting and flood forecasting, it is used in reservoir operation to prolong the forecast period and improve the utilization of water resources. The in based on Tigge rainfall forecast accuracy analysis, discusses the its application feasibility in Yingna River Basin, and the real-time correction of rain fall after the rainfall forecast information application in Yingnahe Reservoir Flood Forecast and real-time scheduling. The main research contents are as follows:(1) In Britain that river basin in 2007-2014 from may to September each year as the research time, choose the ECMWF, NCEP and CMA three sets of ensemble forecast rainfall forecast data, comparative analysis by adopting the method of TS score, Brier score all the model prediction techniques, on the basis of the statistical analysis of all pattern grading precipitation forecast of the forecast results. Results show that the ECMWF agency empty at high rate and low accuracy, high accuracy but CMA institutions empty rate is also high, NCEP agency forecast ability is relatively stable; NCEP forecast control and the ensemble average forecast two modes on the scale of moderate rain and above forecast effect is a huge difference, the rest of the two institutions collection forecast forecast effect is superior to the control of the average forecast of the forecast results. Eventually think NCEP short-term prediction information can be used to guide the river the dispatching of the reservoir real-time flood forecasting.(2) Forecasting the flood process of the river in the future with the model of the real estate, and analyzing the influence of different rainfall input information on the forecast results. The Yingnahe Reservoir history on three different types of flood, for example, respectively, to real-time observation of the rainfall information and are constantly short of NCEP ensemble forecast rainfall information as input, the hourly simulation of a rolling flood storage process. Simulation results of flood forecasting process considering short-term rainfall forecast information are compared and analyzed. The results showed that the flood forecast in the NCEP short-term rainfall forecast information can be extended forecast period, informed ahead of time to peak and peak flow, can gain more time for the reservoir flood dispatching decision.(3) Taking the flood control and flood prevention and flood period as an example, the flood process of ensemble rainfall forecast information is applied to the flood real-time operation of the river bank. Through the comparison based on actual rainfall information and consider the NCEP short-term rainfall forecast information of reservoir operation it was found that the consideration of the rainfall forecast information of reservoir real-time flood dispatching can early foreseeable future flood process, according to the reservoir faced moment rain water project information timely adjust the scheduling decision, improve flood control benefits of the main flood season and increased after the flood of flood resources utilization.Finally, summarize the main research contents and results, and point out the problems in the study and the future work.