| China is one of the countries which are seriously affected by the floods. The losses caused by flood show a tendency to increase, which affect the development of national economic and the harmony and stability of social directly. Reservoir is important engineering measure of flood control and increasing benefit, while reservoir operation is the non-engineering measure of flood control and increasing benefit. Today, the accuracy of flood forecast has reached a high level. And with the development of technology, the accuracy of short term numerical rainfall forecast is also rising. More and more people pay attation to the method of reservoir operation considering the information of flood and rainfall forecast. Based on Biliuhe River Basin, this paper analysises the accuracy of the past10years’short term rainfall forecast information by GFS, and applying the short term rainfall forecast information to reservoir operation. Draw up different operation schemes, and comparative analysis is introduced to select the appropriate scheme into the real-time operation of reservoir. In this way, the comprehensive benefit of reservoir has been improved. The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1) Giving the standards of rainfall grading and the methods of checking accuracy adout rainfall forecast information. Counting the error of past10years’short term rainfall forecast information by GFS adout Biliuhe River Basin, and calculating the eigenvalue of error. And then, analyses the accuracy of short term rainfall forecast information. In order to provide more extension information, analyses actual rainfall probability distribution with the conditions of rainfall forecast. On the basis of above classification, discusses the accuracy of the rainfall forecast information of2012about Biliuhe River Basin by GFS.(2) Analysing the accuracy of flood forecast by "Da Huo Fang" Model. Regarding the actual rainfall information and on this basis considering rainfall forecast information of different forecast period by GFS as the input data, and getting the inflow rolling simulation processes which use three hours as the length of step by "Da Huo Fang" Model. By comparing with the actual flood, analyses the flood forecast process which considering the short-term rainfall forecast information.(3) By the inflow processes got in the third chapter, calculates the cumulative net rainfall. At the same time, according to the net rainfall operation model which is using now in the reservoir operation, gets the decision-making processes which are considering different input data. By analysing the different operation schemes, researchs the right way to use the net rainfall calculated by rainfall forecast information. At the same time, analyses the reservoir operation results by applying the rainfall forecast information of different forecast period. At last, different operation schemes are evaluated.Finally, giving a summary about this study, and discussing the problem to be solved in the further study. |
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