Researchontheoryand Methods Of Early Warning For Railway Operation Safety

Safety is the eternal theme of railway transport. Especially with the rail transport developing towards high speed, high density, technology-intensive and complex technical system, the railway transport safety and security system are facing new demands and challenges. Therefore, it is significant, in theory and practice, to enhance the research on safety early warning of railway transport for the sustainable development of the railway.Aiming at the inadequacies of the research on railway safety early warning and key issues of China's railway safety early warning, this paper applied related thearies and methods such as safety system engineering theory, accident-coursing theory, safety early warning theory, information integration theory,ect, and fuses modern and advanced management concepts, to carry out the following research areas:1. Based on accident-coursing theories and actual accident case data analysis, propose dynamic-comprehensive railway operation accident-coursing model based on safety information.2. Present metasynthetic early warning framework for railway operation safety based on safety information, analyze the key technologies to be resolved.3. In order to solve macroeconomic forecast for the railway accident, propose a combination trend forecasting method based on gray system and time series; research the formal description of the network comprehensive early-warning model; as for safety assessment, present a railway safety evaluation index system.4.A number of key technologies of information integration, including distributed data collaboration middleware, interoperability platform of railway safety monitoring system and lightweight workflow system for railway safety supervision activities are researched and developed independently, which solve the problem of how to integrate railway safety information effectively. Key Words: Railway operation safety early warning, Comprehensive evaluation, Information integration...