Research Of Rail Safety Risk Early Warning System & Key Technology

With the rapid expansion of railway network scale in recent years, high-speed railway centralized production, new technology and new equipment have been put into use, the risk of railway safety is increasing constantly, and higher requirements are put forward to strengthen railway safety risk management, especially safety production process control.How to ensure the reality of security, railway safety and long-term stability of this core goal, to achieve security work from the "cure" to "physical" change, but we need to continue to innovate, security risk management. Security risk assessment and early warning technology is an effective means of security trend analysis and security risk management,While deepening the application of railway safety risk management, there are many problems such as unclear security risk classification, lack of security trend prediction,quantitative risk assessment and early warning technology, therefore, it is one of the main research contents of the railway safety risk management to carry out the research of railway safety risk early warning evaluation technology.This paper is based on the study of comprehensive application of safety monitoring information, which is a major research project of China Railway Corporation in 2015(contract number: 2015X009-A), through the analysis of the current situation of domestic and foreign railway safety risk warning management technology, based on the actual application demand of China Railway deepening safety risk management and control,combined with information network technology, focusing on quantitative assessment of railway safety risk, early warning and safety trend analysis, and improvement of railway safety risk pre control management system, a new idea of building security risk early warning information service platform, which integrates railway safety risk monitoring and early warning, accident trend analysis and security status assessment, is put forward. At the same time, in order to standardize the establishment of the database of railway safety risk factors, the classification criteria of the 4 major railway risk factors are studied; in order to analyze and master the development trend of railway safety, a prediction model of railway traffic accident trend is put forward based on the study of multiple regression forecasting method; in order to achieve the unit (or professional) risk warning the next stage of the research defines the risk factors to harm of "value" as the core of the hazard value calculation method, combined with the forecast and warning threshold, based on "risk hazards" quantitative early-warning evaluation model; objective to comprehensive evaluation of the Railway Bureau (Professional) security level, using the weighted average method, the use of existing railway safety information of actual data available, combined with the evaluation of railway safety management requirements are given according to the Railway Bureau and the state security according to the professional evaluation model.