Rice Planting Distribution And Its Response To Climate Change In China

Rice serves as a basic staple for approximately65%of the China'spopulation, has a dominant position in food production and consumption in China.This research's objectives are to clarify major climate factors affecting thedistribution of rice planting region in China based on national and annual scales,to give the distribution of rice planting region and its climatic suitability divisions,and to give decadal dynamic distribution of rice climatic suitability in China since1961, in order to provide reference for optimizing rice planting pattern and makingcountermeasures to cope with climate change in China. In terms of potentialclimate factors selected from the related literatures based on national and annualscales, rice geographic information from national agrometeorological observationstations of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and meteorological datacorrespondingly, together with the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and thespatial analyst function of ArcGIS software, major climate factors affecting thedistribution of double rice planting region in China would be clarified, ricepotential planting distribution and its climatic suitability would be revealed anddecadal dynamic distribution of rice climatic suitability in China from1961to2010would be analyzed furthermore. The main results are as follows:Annual precipitation(P), moisture index(MI) and days of not less than18℃stably(N18) are dominant climate factors affecting potential distribution ofsingle rice planting region on annual scale in China. The dominant climatefactors affecting double cropping rice planting potential distribution on annualscale in China include annual precipitation(P), mean temperature of thewarmest month(TW) and days of not less than18℃stably(N18). Thedistribution of single and double rice planting region in China is simulatedwell in terms of the maximum entropy model and the selected dominantclimate factors.Low, middle, high and none climatic suitabilities of single and double riceplanting potential distribution in China are given according to the predictionpresence probability. Furthermore, the characteristics of the dominant climate factors in each climatic suitability zone are analyzed.The northern planting boundaries of single and double rice obtained from thisstudy are more close to the practical boundaries at present and more accuratethan those given by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)and the Cooperative Agricultural and Forest Crop Regionalization Group inChina's (CAFCRG). Double rice has a great planting potential in its areaaccording to its climatic suitability and planting boundaries.Decadal dynamic distribution and climatic suitability of single and double ricein China1961－2010are simulated in the study. The single and double ricedistribution and climatic suitability sensitive area to decadal climate changeare given. Furthermore, decadal planting potential area of single and doublerice in each climatic suitability zone and planting boundaries are given. Theresults show that current climate warming and drying may cause single riceclimatic suitability planting area to decrease, middle and high climaticsuitability planting area that reflecting the double rice domain produce zone toincrease in China.