Temporal And Spatial Changes Of Suitable Areas For Mango Planting In Southwest China

Mango is the main tropical economic crop,and it occupies an important position in the agricultural production in the Southwest China.Studying the law of action between climate change and mango planting regions can provide a theoretical basis for the rational layout of mango planting in the southwest region,and further serve agricultural production and planning.Based on the geographical distribution data of mango in the southwest China and the daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2017,the Max Ent model was used to determine the dominant climatic factors affecting the climate suitability of mango.And the relationship between the potential planting distribution of mango and the meteorological resources was established to determine the current potential planting distribution of mango in the southwestern China under the climate background.Based on the constructed relationship model,the potential distribution of mango in the future was determined by combined with the future forecast data of 2020-2100 under the climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.Furthermore,the interdecadal changes of the potential distribution of mango under the current and future climate background were studied by calculating the center of gravity and migration distance of each suitable area.The main conclusions drawn are as follows:(1)Through the percentage contribution and the Jackknife test in the Max Ent model,8dominant climatic factors affecting the distribution of mango cultivation were determined,including daily average temperature ≥ 10 ℃ continuous days,2-4 average temperature,≥ 10 ℃active accumulated temperature,precipitation from February to April,The daily maximum temperature from February to April,the daily maximum temperature from February to April ≥33℃lasting days,the daily minimum temperature≤2℃ lasting days and annual precipitation.The cumulative contribution percentage of these climatic factors to the potential distribution of mango reached 96.2%,representing the main characteristics of the planting distribution of mango.(2)Based on the dominant climatic factors affecting the climate distribution of mango planting in the southwest region,the relationship between mango planting distribution and climate resources was constructed through the Max Ent model,and the suitability distribution of mango in the southwest China was obtained and classified into four levels,including unsuitable area,subsuitable area,suitable area and most suitable area.Under the present climate background,52% of the southwestern region was suitable for planting mango,while 48% of the area was not suitable.Among them,the most suitable area distribution was consistent with the current mango industry layout.In the future climate scenario,the areas of the most suitable area,suitable area and subsuitable area will all increase,and the increase in the RCP8.5 will be larger than that in RCP4.5.(3)Under present and future climate scenarios,the most suitable areas,suitable areas and sub-suitable areas for mango showed an increasing trend in the interdecadal period,while the unsuitable areas showed a decreasing trend.Among them,the suitable area and the unsuitable area was with an incremental increase and decrease,respectively.But the most suitable area and the sub-suitable area fluctuated under different climate scenarios.Moreover,the range of increase or decrease in the four levels suitable areas under RCP8.5 was greater than that under RCP4.5.(4)Under the present climate background,the gravity center of the suitable area has not changed significantly,while that in the future climate scenario will gradually move northward over time.Furthermore,the changes in the gravity center of suitable areas at all levels under RCP4.5and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were different from time to time.Under RCP4.5,gravity center of the most suitable area will move to the northwest,while under the RCP8.5 scenario,it will first move to the northwest,then to the southwest,and finally to the east to the south.