| With economic growth,rapid development of medicinal industry and health and medical service industry as well as stable improvement in people's living standard,people demand more increasingly for health,so that pharmaceutical service,a significant segment in hygiene,becomes more and more critical,and the demand for pharmacists soars up.Although it has been widely accepted that dynamic development trend of international pharmacologic education is to cultivate service-type talents,with a focus on the training of pharmacists,the training of pharmacists in our country is far too backward,lagging behind developed countries and adjoining countries,the current pharmacologic educational pattern and objectives can not meet social demand,and pharmacists' training hasn't become the main stream.It is the requirement of the present conditions of our country and international developmental trend to culture pharmaceutical service-type talents on a large scale.Based on the above philosophy,this paper proposes an optimized pattern for pharmacist human resource(HR) development that corresponds with the needs of our country's development,and regulates related development project according to scientific prediction.This basic and advancing explorative study play significant roles in guiding and advancing the reforms in pharmacologic education in our country in order to adjust the higher education to the advanced development rate,to cultivate more and better specialized talents to meet social needs,to serve the socialist modernization construction and the construction of a harmonious society,and to reserve talents for the building of a well-off society in an all-round way.(1) Based on the synthesized analysis of the current situations in politics and economy,we create the political and real environments for nourishing pharmacist-type talents.This paper outlines the dynamic development in the international society,clarifies pharmacist-type-talent training has become a developmental trend in the future.Meanwhile,this paper makes a brief analysis of the present situation and existing problems in our country's pharmacologic education. Last but not least,it elaborates on the significance of the current project,making it clear that we need to study the trend of the above-mentioned training pattern deeply,referring to the corresponding patterns of developed countries,predict total demand for pharmacists on the basis of our country's future economy and social development,with the purpose of laying a solid foundation for and guiding the development of clinical pharmaceutical development.(2) This paper studies and summarizes the current training situation in the United States, clarifing that Pharm.D.vocational degree education is the first degree for pharmaceutical majors in U.S.,we make a judgment that the training of pharmaceutical service-type talents has become the main stream in U.S..Subsequently,we review the pharmaceutical talent- training process in U.S., preliminarily grasp the tracks of its development,i.e.how American pharmaceutical service-type talents training transformes from S.S—S.S + Pharm.D.—Pharm.D..Through careful study of the development of American pharmaceutical service-type talent training,we propose we should actively reform higher pharmaceutical education in our country to cultivate imperative talents in pharmacy to meet the market demand.(3) This paper reviews the history of Japanese pharmacologic education,making it clear Japanese pharmacologic education undergoes six phases,namely budding phase(1873-1879),primary scaling phase(1880-1911),primary developing phase(1912-1944),reformation phase (1945-1960),booming phase(1961-1983),contradiction and controversy phase(1984-2004). Following that,we examine the current situation of talent training in Japan,summarizing its features.Comparing the existing problems in China and Japan,we finally put forward the training of service-type pharmacists is an inexorable trend.We expect we may utilize the study of Japanese corresponding training pattern to serve our country and meet the market demand,zealously reform, establish advanced educational philosophy and produce talents suiting the pharmaceutical practice in the future.(4) This paper surveys fully the present situation of pharmaceutical education in East Asia, we find pharmacologic education in these areas are undergoing reform and at a booming stage.A phenomenon deserving our attention is that some eastern Asian countries are transforming the 4-year pharmacologic education to a 6-year one.Thailand is the first to introduce 6-year system in Naresuan in 1999,till now 5 universities have adopted such system.It is officially reported that Taiwan University will start the 6-year Pharm.D.system in June,2009,besides,Korea also shows great interest.Motive for reform and development in these countries derives undoubtedly from the economic fast development and people's demands for health and care in these areas,besides the push and support of specialized unions and government.Though pharmaceutical reform and development in eastern Asian countries lag decades behind developed countries,it suits its social and economic development and people's needs.The development of those countries will surely hint us positively.As a pharmaceutical teacher,it is necessary and urgent to realize and promote the launching of training needy talents to contribute the great-leap-forward development of pharmaceutical enterprises and the harmonious development of our country.(5) This paper studies and analyzes India's current situation,its internal and external circumstances as well as its existing problems and changes,we realize there is much similarity to China.Both are developing countries with a large population,and in the past decades,both have developed rapidly in economy,and presently are facing reform and development problems in pharmacologic education.India has realized its shortcomings,and is conducting reforms from various angles,with the aim of transforming its pattern for training service-type talents to suit future development.In contrast,our steps seem slow.The thirst for pharmaceutical service-type talents is a problem that we have to face and solve immediately.It is the responsibility of the society,including pharmaceutical working staff as a whole,to realize and push the training of service-type pharmaceutical talents.(6) This paper makes a deep analysis of history,features,shortcomings,present situation of clinical pharmaceutics and necessity and feasibility of establishing related training mechanism in our country,making clear the developmental trend of talent training in our country,realizing that it goes with the international trend to nourish great numbers of service-type pharmaceutical talents on a large scale.We need to deepen and convert traditional philosophy higher pharmacologic education, modify major construction in traditional education,innovate talent training model and establish corresponding system.(7) This paper elaborates on such basic issues as concept,features,principles and procedures for prediction of HR demand,summarizes methods for predictions in quality and quantity.The paper introduces domestic and overseas researches in demand predictions of pharmacist HR,constructs a most optimized model for development in pharmacist HR.Firstly, applying simple linear regression,we study the interactive relationship between pharmacist training and regularities of social economic development in U.S.and Japan,testifies and summarizes the correlations between development track and the sieved indices.Secondly,using the method of partial correlation,we dip into whether there is dynamic interdependent relationship between the corresponding indices in U.S and Japan,and whether there exists independence between all related factors,if so,we eliminate irrelafive indices and then chase down factors affecting the development of pharmacist.On the basis of their respective social security systems,we analyze the reasons why factors affecting the two countries' pharmacist development are different.Thirdly,exerting multi linear regression,we construct the regression equation for U.S.and Japan.Fourthly,exercising cluster analysis,we compare the regularities of the pharmacist HR development in U.S.and Japan, pointing out the present phases of the two countries.(8) This paper constrct the mathematical model for the optimized pharmacist HR scaling development.Firstly,we conduct empirical research on the current situation of pharmacist development in China.Applying correlation statistical method,we construct the regression equation for Chinese pharmacist HR development,testifies its existing problems,making it clear that there does exist striking contradictions between the scaling development in pharmacist HR and social development.Secondly,using chronological listing method,we analyze the reasons inhibiting the speed of scaling development in pharmacist HR in China.Meanwhile,we analyze the gap between China and U.S and Japan,objectively analyze the existing problems in China,hence probing the main reasons curbing its pharmacist development,finding out the indices for the rate of change for abnormal development in this field.Thirdly,using chronological listing method,we investigate the regularity model for the indices for the rate of change,combining the regression equations concluded previously,we reach the pharmacist development models for the three countries in a state of natural development,in the meantime,we compare the number of pharmacist in U.S.in 2016 calculated on the basis of our model and the officially issued number by the U.S.Statistic Bureau, finding the two numbers approach each other by a coincidence degree of 98.14%,which indicates there is high reliability of our research.Fourthly,using method of least square,we fit regression for all changing rate indices,and obtain the relation models for the three main factors and chronological orders:Y1=e-0.023-0.418x,Y2=0.001X+0.02,Y3=-0.049+0.028*ln(x).The mathematical model for the optimized pharmacist HR scaling development is Y=k1Y1+k2Y2+k3Y3+C,in which k1,k2,k3,and Care constants.By fitting can we obtain values of the above constants and predict and curb its development in the following 10 to 18 years.Fifthly,we utilize Language C to create a soft ware to test the reliability and practicability of the models.We calculate that there will be about 67.22 pharmacists out of every 10 thousand people in China in 2020,with a credibility interval of [63.4,71.02],which approaches the result from SPSS by 98.9%.Sixthly,we program the training of pharmaceutical service-type talents,based on the prediction of social demand and pharmacist HR development.With the present pharmacologic higher education scale as basic statistics,and the numbers of enrollment and graduates from1983 to 2006 as its internal discipline,we predict the future development of pharmaceutical graduates and propose a training program:up to 2020,the enrollment will increase by approximate 26.91%annually,equal to an increase of 30 thousand in enrollment,in addition,only by cultivating all the graduates as pharmaceutical service-type talents can we meet social and economic demands for pharmacist HR prediction,hence meeting the demand for health care.
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