System Evaluation And Mechanism Research Of Crisis Countermeasure

Nowadays, the globalization and the network have already made the complex society more dynamic and uncertain. The public crises and unexpected events have been the normality and"new tags"of the social environment. The crisis becomes more and more uncertain, complicated and unpredictable. If we don't have a scientific and effective crisis countermeasure mechanism, the crisis is likely to get out of control. The study on crisis countermeasure system and mechanism helps to build a complete crisis countermeasure system which plays an important part in support, indemnification and stability of the economic and social development. At present, the studies on the crisis countermeasure system and mechanism are still very weak. They are mostly sporadic and preliminary but not systemic and in-depth. In particular, there are few quantitative studies on the crisis countermeasure system.This article studies the regional resilience factors, emergency decision-making patterns and coordination institution of crisis countermeasure through the model analysis, case analysis, empirical analysis and statistic and econometric techniques based on the crisis cycle theory, total disaster risk management theory and sustainable development theory. The main studies and innovations are as follow.1. The regional resilience evaluation under the situation management. This article analyzes the composition of regional resilience from three base-level (namely internality, time and externality) based on the situation management. Furthermore, this article builds a hierarchical structural regional resilience evaluation model, which helps to identify weaknesses in crisis countermeasure system. The result shows that the regional resilience is composed of the resistance, restoration and innovation. The key elements of resistance, restoration and innovation can be used as the specific measurement indexes of the region resilience.2. The main determinants of crisis countermeasure system. In order to find out the key factors of the regional resilience, this article examines the determinants of the regional resilience evaluation with the pooled data of 10 cities for the period of 2003-2007 based on the regional resilience evaluation model. The results show that the per capita income, emergency pathway, emergency support, social system are positively related with the regional resilience. And the emergency support has the greatest impact on regional resilience. While the influences of information dissemination, GDP and unemployment rate on regional resilience are negative.This article puts forward some suggestions which enhance the regional resilience based on crisis. We should change the present economic development pattern of sacrificing the environment for development, which emphasize from the development, economic GDP to the ecological civilization, culture GDP. We should establish an inter-departmental emergency support system and carry out flat management. That ensures the truth, integrity and science of crisis information through exploring the effective crisis information dissemination mechanisms. And we should avoid the internal imbalance of people by improving the initial distribution to increase the income of most people.3. The synergetic governance model of crisis countermeasure. Based on the synergetic theory, the article analyzes the characteristics of the crisis countermeasure system, studies the external opening mechanism, the internal synergetic mechanism and the dynamic mechanism of the crisis synergetic governance, and explores the path of establishing the synergetic governance mechanism. We can make the crisis countermeasure system change from disorder to order through building the cross-sector and comprehensive crisis management agency and the multi-level crisis countermeasure coordination mechanisms, and strengthening the emergency resources support and soft power. Finally we realize the synergetic governance of crisis countermeasure. The research shows that we can realize the synergetic governance of crisis countermeasure through building the cross-sector and comprehensive crisis management agency, constructing the multi-level crisis countermeasure coordination mechanisms, and strengthening the emergency resources support and soft power.Then we analyze the self-organization evolution mechanism of crisis countermeasure system by using self-organization theory. It studies on the necessary conditions and impetus of the self-organization evolution of crisis countermeasure system. A dynamic model of crisis countermeasure system is established by applying Logistic model from biology. Then it simulates with computer based on the model combined by three emergency management agencies. The results indicate that crisis countermeasure system can receive the steady state by self-organization evolution; The time which emergency management agencies reach the balance is positively correlated with the initial state and the intrinsic growth rate of them; The scale is positively correlated with the number of emergency management agencies in crisis countermeasure system and the largest scale which it relies on its own ability; The scale which emergency management agencies reach the balance is closely correlated with the competition-cooperation effect coefficient. Thus, we can accelerate self-organization evolution of crisis countermeasure system through resources guarantee, multi-participation, information sharing and collaborative governance.4. The dynamic decision-making patterns and communication strategies of crisis countermeasure. In order to deals with the crisis effectively, this article studies how crisis manager makes emergency decision-making according to the increasing information and previous activities based on dynamic game of incomplete information. And crisis manager makes crisis communication strategy based on the public demands. The research shows that: We build the emergency decision-making function of crisis manager to analyze emergency programs, which will help crisis manager makes dynamic decision-making. And the public information need is the key factors of the selection of crisis communication strategy.Furthermore, this article develops a dynamic crisis countermeasure helix model to analyze the dynamics countermeasure process of crisis. We suppose that the crisis decision-making process is a dynamic game process under the incomplete information between"crisis manager"and"crisis". Then we analyze the dynamics decision-making patterns of crisis countermeasure, select the aid programs by calculating the expected utility of them according to the emergency decision-making function, which gives support to crisis manager.Moreover, this article suggests the crisis communication strategy based on public demands. From the perspective of public demands, we analyze the change of public demands for three types of information in times of crisis prodromal, breakout, chronic and resolution. And consequently, we suggest four strategies for four stages of crisis: internalizing information dominant strategy, instructing information dominant strategy, adjusting information dominant strategy and internalizing information strengthening strategy. So that public who are suffering from crises to obtain necessary information can cope with the crisis more effective.5. The evolutionary game on coordination crisis institution. For exploring the changing path of the coordination crisis institution, the article studies the coordination problems between the central and local governments, the government and the media, the supplier of emergency material through the evolutionary game theory. The results show that: the diversity of coordination crisis institution is caused by the multi—equilibrium of coordination game. And the different efficiency of coordination crisis institution causes the pressure of institution change,but the change of institution lies on the stochastic stability of the corresponding institution equilibrium. This article builds the game matrix between the central and local governments based on information. The results show that the game between the central and local governments will reach the public information equilibrium ultimately. And the improvement of the government official appraisal system and the establishment of the official internal information sharing institution help to achieve this equilibrium.Furthermore, this article studies the crisis communication mechanism based on the evolutionary game. This article builds the game matrix of the crisis communication mechanism that the participants are the government and the media. This game is risk dominant game and is convergent. Whatever the initial mechanism between the government and the media are, they will be independent ultimately. The information open, the separation of government and media and the public participation will speed up the shift of the independent equilibrium between the government and the media.Moreover, this article sets up the game matrix of bidding of emergency suppliers. There will be a multi-supplier mechanism of a main supplier and some sub-suppliers in the bidding process, and the main suppliers will change continually during the process of bidding of emergency suppliers. Therefore, the government should establish the backup supplier database, and provide a positive fair atmosphere and pricing mechanism for suppliers.