Research And Application Of Quantitative Methods Related To Government Performance

In order to adapt to world development trend of economic globalization, market, information, governments promote the implementation of performance management, strengthen the governance capability, and enhance international competitiveness and service levels. Affected by the theory and practice of the Government Performance Evaluation (GPE) in Western countries, since the mid-to late 90s of the 20th century, some of our local governments and departments have paid increasing concerns to performance evaluation, and learned from the successful experience of Western governments performance evaluation, introduced modern performance evaluation concepts, methods and techniques to implement by a variety of ways in practice, have achieved some success. However, compared with the Western developed countries, China's GPE research and practice started late, our theories and methods exists a lot of deficiencies too, in the evaluation methods, especially the use based largely on the qualitative assessment and the lack of quantitative analysis. In this dissertation, the government's performance evaluation regarded as the core, selection, improvement and application of evaluation methods regarded as the main line, advancing the relevant theories in the same time, close attention have been paid to the study of rationality and practicality of the evaluation methods used. The main work of this dissertation can be summarized as the following aspects:Firstly, the paper analyzes the research significance of government performance evaluation, summarizes the status of research at home and abroad, presents research ideas and organizational structure. The second, the paper describes the theoretical basis related to GPE, uses the concept of new institutional economics for reference to analyze the cost composition of GPE by transaction costs, and explores the basic approach to control effectively cost of performance evaluation from a new perspective through the system design and operation.The doctoral dissertation focuses on construction index system of local GPE and method research of index weight. First of all, by using concept of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) for reference, the main effect indices of Local Government Performance (LGP) indicators are summarized for these four aspects about local development, the civil service, internal management, innovation and learning, and an evaluation model with a tridimensional characteristic is built up with all-round, multi-dimensional, tridimensional evaluation of LGP. Secondly, the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is introduced into the government field to deal with index weights so as to avoid interference of artificial and subjective factors on the weights of indicators. Finally the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is researched too, and a quantitative and qualitative analysis is achieved effectively. According to the non-deterministic features of GPE, the uncertainty system methods are studied in the paper. Based on the theory of Set Pair Analysis (SPA), Proportional Analysis Method (PAM) is used to differentiate such uncertain composition. Thus the uncertainty system is translated into the certainty one in theory. Based of original model, a weighting vector is established in the model of fuzzy evaluation. The improved model makes the difference obviously between all influential factors of evaluation object. By the new model, the government can find effortlessly the cause of the question in evaluation object, and presents objective measures for improving the government performance.The dissertation studies the comprehensive evaluation methods in the field of government management. On the basis of considering the URTASD (Urban Traffic Administration Sustainable Development), the extended Multi-factorial Evaluation method is utilized to assess the level of URTASD. A matter-element model is build up by analyzing the elements that influence URTASD.Then the multi-ingredient assessment is transformed into the single-object decision, and the results can directly show the sustainable development level of the urban road traffic administration. Based on perspective of rational decision-maker, this dissertation analyze the decision problem that give attention to future trends, and proposal dynamic decision making approach that include past, present and future status. This approach integrates the objective and subjective information. This dissertation studies the combination evaluation methods in the field of government management. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) extended to the fuzzy by supplementary and improvement, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) forms. Finally, sequencing result about the competitiveness of multi-cities by FAHP is a more reasonable conclusion. Through applying Projection Pursuit Cluster (PPC) model combined with real coding based Accelerating Genetic Algorithm (RAGA) in the comprehensive decision-making of city emergency response capabilities, the authors turn multi-dimension data into low dimension space. Thus, the value of projection function can evaluate each item good or not. The RAGA—PPC model can furthest avoid jamming of weight in the traditional method of multi-dimension data.In short, this article are based mainly on performance evaluation carried out the general logic thinking, that is, starting with the establishment of evaluation index system, and then study the weight of indicators, the final against the various features and specific problems of the government performance, methods were used such as non-deterministic systems approachs, comprehensive evaluation methods and evaluation method of integration. Improved or innovative theories and methods get reasonable tests through effective integration with evaluation practice.