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Quantitative Analysis On Fluctuations Of The Stock Market In China

Posted on:2001-03-12Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J ZhouFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360002451856Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Since the establishment of Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1990, it is significant milestone that Chinese enterprises change its financing channel from indirect to direct financing and equity financing, the China Securities Market has become the most important part in China economy. With its by speedy development and deep impact, the China Securities Market has developed over the past decade of China Economy Reforming and experienced the utmost sinuosity and turbulence. It has been not only the most active and attractive market in the process of the transition of planning economy to market oriented economy in China; but also the main field of restructuring and refining state owned or controlled companies to establish modem company institutes. As Securities Market being the most concentrated place of every level of society, in where fortunes transit most quickly and monetary market and capital market intersect, the Securities Market has been highly concerned by every economic entity. Different participants, including government, enterprises and various investors, have different concept and ideas about securities market how to construction. Government, as a general regulator, expects the securities market to meet the financing demand of listed companies, to reduce speculation, and to keep stock price in reasonable fluctuation, so that to develop the stable and mature stock market. Listed companies, as the other participant, expect to raise efficient fund from an effective market to meet need of self-growth with the lowest cost and simultaneously to fulfill the restructure of the state-owned companies into modem company institutes. Other investors expect to have superb profit higher than market average return by investment or speculation. Different participants with the same or different motivations involving in stock market exchange makes the stock price or stock price indexes fluctuate normally and abnormally. Normal (or reasonable) fluctuation of stock price is the very basic condition that makes the Stock Market existing and developing. And the fluctuation is also the condition that makes continuously the Stock Market exchange activity to fulfill the flow of the Stock Market in China, which has positive effect on healthy development of stock market. Meanwhile, over-fluctuation (or abnormal fluctuation) will make the stock price / stock price indexes move up and down irregularly, create and enhance the environment of speculation, and do a lot of harm to the stability and development of secwities market. Therefore, researching on the fluctuation of stock price on the developing securities market in China, grasping the fluctuating rule of stock market, and properly adjusting the frequency and extent of the fluctuation, have come out a focused issue to be concerned and solved by governmental administrative organs and academic schools, which is significant both theoretically and realistically. This thesis focuses its research on the rules of price fluctuation of the Stock Market in China, relative factors of price fluctuation by quantitatively analysis, which provides the government regulatory body with a general quantitatively analyzing model to work out programs and policies for the development of the Securities Market in China. Coming out from an experienced securities practitioner observing objectively the development of the securities market in China over the past decade from a professional perspective, this thesis revealed the development of the China Stock Market and a summary an...
Keywords/Search Tags:Quantitative
PDF Full Text Request
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