The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In China In The Transition Period And Enhance The Way

So far the effectiveness of monerary policy (hereafter BMP) remains one of the most important but pendent problems about monetary theory. The macro financial control in China has undergone fundermental changes from 1993,when the Peaple' Bank of China began to take the quantity of monetary supply as the immediate target of monetary policy with the transformation from direct control to that of indirect. However,since 1998 we had to face the macroeconomic puzzledom of weak efficient demand. Though the central bank adopted series of operations to expand agrregate demand,but no one would agree that such operations did the job. This indicated that the practices called for us to study the BMP,choosing such title has both theoretic and practical significance.Now there are lots of literatures on BMP in China,but most of them are qualitative whch are not precise in the whole,even thouth few of the quantitive analytic literatures used the newest econometric approaches to quantify the effects of monetary policy of China. The author insists that the proposition on BMP contains numberous precondictions,the reference values of the qulitative papers are limited as they cannot answere exactly what on earth the BMP is . So this dissertation systematically studied the BMP of China according to the clue of monetary supply which is the immediate target of monetary policy. Of course,the stress is to attempt to apply the newest econometric approaches,such as Impulse Response Function and Cointegration Test,to develop the topic on BMP to a new regime and draw some valuable conclusions.The author insists that BMP based on the immediate target of monetary supply lies on the next three facts. First,can money influence real economic output? Of course we can measure its influence from both static and dynamic effects,which respectively composed the contend of monetary neutrality and the time lag of BMP in this dissertation. Second,if the effects of monetary shocks on output are obvious,then what's the transmission mechanism? Monetary channel or credit channel? It's the content that transmission mechanism of monetary policy would study. Thirdly,can central bank control the monetary supply? That is,the monetary supply was exogenous or endogenous? Specially,the author insists that the shocks from the price of non-monetary assets would be also vital to study the central bank's ability about controling monetary supply. So the author would answer these questions respetively according to monetary endogenisis and the price of non-monetary assets. In details,the main contents and results are as follows:(1)The monetary neutrality from static point of view. Obviously it's the core content and premise to theory of BMP. This dissertation would discuss three kinds of instances on monetary neutrality. First,the neutrality of monetary shocks without accounts of expectations and symmetry. Secondly,the neutrality of expectable monetary shocks and unexpectablemonetary shocks. Thirdly,the shocks of negative and positive monetary supply on real output,that is,the symmetry of monetary nutrality. This dissertation demonstratively proved that above three kinds of monetary shocks all had obvious influences on real output during the sample period from 1993 to 2001,and the money supply does not possess the character of nutrality in stimulating Chinese economic growth. Compared with the negative monetary shocks the positive relatively had much less obvious effect,which indicates that the negative monetary policy can effectively restrain excessive economic booms,but the positive monetary policy cannot obviously help breaking away from economic depressions. As different kinds of monetary supply was concerned,their quantitive effects differ with each other. Because Mi's shocks was the most inportant reason to arouse macroeconomic changes,it is reasonable for the central bank to supervise Ml as the immediate target of monetary policy.(2)The influence of time lag on BMP in China. The time lag was one of the important factor to affect BMP. According to the dem...