Shanghai Urban Pension System Change And Numerical Simulation

This paper is organized with 11 chapters as follows:Chapter 1, the paper draws its research subject-the development process and mathematic simulation of Shanghai urban pension scheme, from the basic fact that the pension schemes have been reformed by local governments and have extremely differences in various regions in China. Then, the study method and thesis framework and primary innovative assertions of this paper are discussed.Chapter 2, chapter 3 and chapter 4, establish the practical and academic analysis foundation, from the historical development process and system selection and academic research, give a survey on general pension scheme. Among them, the chapter 2 reviews the historical development process of the old age insurance system; conclude the immanent mechanism, operational structure, adjustment path and orientation and reformational measures. The chapter 3 studies the mechanism classification, system selection and institutional characteristic and its influence on society and economy. The chapter 4 gives a survey on many published studies and examines the main points of their view, including the origin explanation, economic and welfare effects, PAYG-FF reform and the system under open or multi-sector economy.Chapter 5 and chapter 6 systemically analyze the development path and mechanism actuality and condition of the pension scheme in China and in Shanghai, allowing for them, discuss the problem and put forward some suggestions. The chapter 5 focuses on the China pension scheme, explaining the local government reform model and the system diversity. The chapter 6 focuses on the Shanghai pension scheme, especially the system condition and framework.Chapter 7 and chapter 8 establish the horizontal equilibrium model of the Shanghaiurban pension scheme, then using the historical and estimate data to mathematic simulation, calculating the return of the scheme and evaluating the validity. The chapter 7 establishes the horizontal equilibrium model, analysis relative parameters' effects and estimates the data. The chapter 8 applies the model and relative data to evaluate the Shanghai urban pension scheme. Then brings forward the problem and related suggestions.Chapter 9 and chapter 10 studies on the system transform by processing dynamic analysis, including the macro-economic background and condition and effect, and discuss the vertical equilibrium and how to gain the equilibrium. The chapter 9 establishes one two-overlapping generations model, analysis the macro-economic effect of the system transform. The chapter 10 uses one simple vertical equilibrium model, discusses the probability and process of gaining the equilibrium by extend the coverage without reform the current scheme.As the last chapter of the whole paper, Chapter 11 summarizes the paper conclusions. The development of the pension scheme has high path dependence. The current urban pension scheme in China has high implicate rate of return. Therefore the partial-funded program is still a good solution for our old age insurance selection. At least in a short period, we'd better strive for the more feasible condition and environment, such as development of the capital market, depressing the substitution level of the pension along with pension reform. Maybe extending the scheme coverage to gain the balance of the system is more important actual work.