China Listed Companies, The Forecast Disclosure

Information plays a leading role in market operation and function. To maintain fair information, and to promote information efficiency is the key to protecting the investor's interest, and realizing resources-compounding. Earning preannouncement practices the ideal of high quality information disclosure by the supervising bureau. In the eyes of the supervising bureau that advocates full disclosure, the more a company discloses its information, the more transparent it is, which results in smaller fluctuation of stock price. This paper deals with the issues of earning preannouncement disclosure of the listed companies in China. First, we sort out the development of earning preannouncement system in the lignt of system vicissitude, and recall all the studies on earning preannouncement in the stock market at home and abroad. Then, we come to empirical studies of implementing effects of earning preannouncement from three aspects. First, we use event analysis to observe the event reaction of single preannouncement disclosure (mainly annual earning preannouncement), to analyze the following issues. Does annual earning preannouncement pass any new information to the market? Does the investor behave rationally? What influence does new rules impose upon annual earning preannouncement event reaction? Second, the new rules shorten the time interval and promote the timeliness of preannouncement. Because of the inherent limitation of the event-analysis method, the policy effects of interval preannouncement can not be completely interpreted within the event study. In order to further test the implemental effects of the new rule on earning preannouncement we consider to make our systematic analysis of the stability of the stock market in terms of the fluctuation. Making use of the time series exhibitions of the fluctuation-rate datum, we make our study for the following two purposes: one is to observe whether the preannouncing companies' temporal-condition variance of the series of the return rate conforms to the demand of stability; the other is to decide whether the preannouncing companies' stocks have asymmetrical-information adjustment, this is to say, to decide how the companies response to good or bad news. Thirdly, based on the search for the evidence of preannouncing disclosure and market stability, we need review whether interval preannouncement has a prominent relationship with the fluctuation of stocks' price and find out whether the supply of interval information brings reciprocal intervention. The behavioral characters of companies' interval preannouncement disclosure can be partly interpreted within the filtering effect study. Based on the conclusions from the empirical research, above given the sorts of problems during the practical course of earning preannouncement of our country's listed companies, we make a further research and discussion. On this ground, we turn our eyes to the quality-standard level of preannouncing system establishment and suggest the corresponding countermeasures to regulate the quality of preannouncing information. We expect this can make a reference to Pareto improvement on earning preannouncement system. This paper consists of seven chapters. Chapter One IntroductionThis chapter handles the choice and research motivation of this paper, definition of research subject, research thought, research methods, and structure arrangement, the basic conclusion of this paper, and the issues needing further research.Chapter Two System Vicissitude of China's Earning Preannouncement The system vicissitude of China's earning preannouncement is a gradual process. Earningpreannouncement covers pre-loss, warning, pre-increase, and pre-eaming disclosure. Since 2002, thesupervising bureau has established a new rule-the previous quarter pre-announces the next quarterperformance-to construct a mature and effective market for the sake of forming of market expectations.Constructing and improving earning preannouncement system, the supervising bureau expects to...