Study On The Impact Of Pork Price And Fluctuation On Urban Residents In China

How the impact of pork price fluctuations on residents' welfare and how much impact is a real concern for people.In recent years,due to the impact of production costs,epidemics,natural disasters,and changes in the pig industry policy,the price of live pigs has fluctuated significantly,and fluctuations in the price of live pigs will inevitably affect consumers' living standards and choice behaviors.According to the theory of consumer behavior,pork prices have risen.On the one hand,the consumption effect is affected by the allocation effect,and the consumption structure of residents will also change at the same time.On the other hand,the increase in pork prices through the welfare effect will lead to a decline in consumer welfare levels.Rural residents,as producers of pork,will reduce this level of welfare loss due to the income effect of rising pork prices,while urban residents,as net consumers of pork,are the subject of welfare losses.Therefore,grasping the fluctuation law of live pig prices,the impact of postgraduate pig price on the welfare effect of urban and rural residents is to reduce the price fluctuation of live pigs,and to minimize the change of welfare of urban and rural residents caused by price fluctuations has great practical significance.This paper uses HP filtering method and Minot model to study the characteristics of pork price fluctuation,influencing factors and the impact on urban residents' welfare.The research results show that the fluctuation frequency of pork prices in China is very intense,which has a great impact on China's pork industry.The government should reduce the price volatility through macroeconomic regulation and control.The price of pork has a distinct seasonality.Generally speaking,it begins to decline from March of each year and begins to rise in June every year,showing a U-shaped change.The overall trend of pork prices is a gradual increase,and the price cycle of pork is generally three to four years.There are certain differences in the factors affecting the short-term welfare and long-term welfare changes of urban residents brought about by the fluctuation of pork prices in China.In the short term,the change in welfare of urban residents' pork consumption mainly depends on the change in CR value.In the long run,the welfare changes in pork consumption of urban residents also depend on the demand elasticity of pork and the price elasticity of demand.The short-term welfare effect and the long-term welfare effect of urban residents brought about by the fluctuation of pork prices are basically the same.The fluctuation of pork price brings the long-term welfare change of urban residents to less than the short-term welfare change.Further research shows that the welfare effects of urban residents with fluctuations in pork prices will show significant differences in different income groups according to the level of economic development.In other words,the rise in pork prices will cause a large number of welfare losses for urban residents,but the price increase will show strong inter-provincial differences in the level of welfare losses of different classes.In low-and medium-developing provinces,pork price changes have the greatest impact on middle-income groups,followed by high-income groups and have the least impact on low-income groups.In provinces with higher levels of economic development.The full text is divided into seven parts,the arrangements of each part are as follows:The first part is the introduction.Based on the analysis of research background and literature review,the main research contents and methods,innovations and deficiencies of the article are introduced.The second part is conceptual definition and theoretical analysis.This section mainly explains the price and welfare of pork,and outlines the theoretical basis of this paper and the transmission mechanism of pork price fluctuations to the welfare of residents.The third part is the study of pork price fluctuation in China.This part mainly studies the new law of pork price fluctuation in China,and analyzes the cyclical,seasonal,asymmetry and fluctuation factors of pork price fluctuation.The fourth part is the study on the welfare impact of urban residents with fluctuations in pork prices.This section uses national data to analyze the impact of pork price volatility on urban residents.The fifth part is the study on the impact of pork price fluctuation on urban residents with different incomes.This section further analyzes whether the welfare effects of urban residents with fluctuations in pork prices will show significant differences in different income groups according to the level of economic development.The sixth part is the conclusions and recommendations.It mainly summarizes the results obtained from the empirical part and proposes targeted countermeasures.