The Study On Investment Decision And Portfolio In Pertroleum Company

Petroleum (natural gas) industry is of high investment and high risk. The exploration of crude oil and oil refining both take great risk and need great investment. A scientific and rational investment plan is the first key to the development in petroleum companies. Therefore the optimum model for investment decision in petroleum companies is studied. The main research works in the paper are listed as follows:1. According to the character of integrative development and construction in petrol industry of our country, the portfolio theory is introduced. The basis development status of portfolio theory is summarized. At the same time, the capital market theory and the capital asset pricing model(CAPM), as well as the arbitrage pricing theory are carefully analyzed. The basis ideas and research content of the paper are confirmed.2. Based on the maximized return model and minimized risk model of portfolio theory, the relation on one term efficient point of least variance and N term tradeoff point in frontier are discussed, and a mathematical programming model based on compound deviation is analyzed.3. The economic evaluation methods and risk evaluation principles for investment projects are studied, and the Monte Carlo simulation applied to risk analysis is discussed.4. The impact of economic trend on the investment scale is systematically analyzed, the relation between the global economic increase and the global demand for the energy source is studied, the relation between the capital expenditure of the international great petroleum companies and the global economic increase are discussed, the impact of international crude oil and finished oil prices on investment scale are also studied. And the constraints the influence the development of the petroleum companies are presented.5. The portfolio optimization model for the petroleum companies is constructed, the solution method for the portfolio optimization model, i.e. upper limited and lower limited variables-based improved simplex method is studied. The computation of the feasible set and the solving of the efficient frontier curve are presented, the project optimization and the minimal investment scale to fulfill balanceable development of petroleum companies are also studied.6. The investment optimization and decision support system based upon portfolio for petroleum companies is systematically explained. The 195 candidate exploration projects of some petroleum company are optimized, and the scientific bases for decision-making in the company is offered.