| This dissertation explores both china's manufacturing industry's developing path from the industrial development's visual angle and the risk trap during this process. It puts forward an important idea that china's manufacturing industry will have been confronted with a danger of losing the leading right in the process of industrial development and relapsing into industrial off-center due to the international industrial divide's rigidity, though china's manufacturing industry have developed very fast since 1979 for the main developing index growing rapidly such as main industrial product's product and international trade quantity and etc. Through international comparing from the history prospective and typical case analysis, the author finds the sticking point, and puts forward new import substitute strategy that the policy maker should adopt.This dissertation includes six chapters .the first chapter explain the reason of choosing this theme, how to study it, the present research production and background of this research from four aspects. It is: 1 Theme choosing and this dissertation's meanings both in the theory and in the practice. 2 This research 's foundation. 3 A review of documents. 4 A review of research and thought. The second chapter analyses the new type industrialization path and manufacturing industry's status. China's new type industrialization path's complexity lies in which both has the developing nation's general characteristics and has its own characteristics .In the point of view of output and population, China is in the industrialization's initial stages. In the point of view of industrial department's output proportion, China is in the metaphase stages. China's population problem and labor resource 's particularity determine the new type industrialization developing stages 's particularity. Its direct aftereffect is that manufacturing industry's advantages and challenges coexist; labor price advantages and other factors lead to manufacturing industry's rapid development; but in the meantime. , Technology's dropping behind, industrial's low added value, and labor force's low diathesis are all serious.The third chapter analysis international industrial divide's rigidity and trap. It explains international industrial divide's type and new developing trend and puts forward inside-industry international divide's three-chain theory .In the international industrial divides, developed nations occupy and control the first and the second chain. They transfer the third chain into China. It is a kind of rigidity .In the end, It analysis this rigidity do latency harm to the development of China's manufacturing industry .It concludes the trap's deep meaning.The fourth chapter, as far as auto-manufacturing industry is concerned, analyses the course of emerging and developing of this industry. Applying the game theory to this analysis, it analyses Multinational Corporation, local company, and government's game process. Requesting different industrial developing patterns, The three players cannot but adopt different strategy in order to maximize self-interest respectively. So, after transitory cooperation, it is inevitable that they part company, each going its own way. In other words, in the process of absorbing FDI, auto industry shouldn't abandon R&D and industrial developing leading right. That attempting the third chain's magnitude scale to solve unemployment and realize national fortune accumulating is uncontinuable. The latent crisis, accompanying international politics and economy's changing, will break out sooner or later. The only method is that taking advantage of industrial technology revolution, forming breakthrough in pivot domain, and in control of the leading right of industry development.The fifth chapter, through historical case review of world factory, analyses the three world factory ever since -Great Britain: the first manufacturing center in the world; USA: the most powerful world factory and Japan: the world's second powerful nat...
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