China's Consumer Credit Research

On the basis of consumption credit theory,together with the practice in China,we analyze the economic and financial function of consumption credit. Based on the detailed analysis of current situation of consumption credit practice in China,its potential risk and the strategies against credit risk,we carry out a comprehensive study on consumption credit in China and offer a complete set of suggestions,thus furthering the scope and width of the research in this field. From this point,this dissertation is of theoretical value and practical importance. This dissertation falls into seven chapters. Chapter One gives a brief introduction to the current situation of consumption credit studies both at home and abroad, the author′s intention,the outline of the dissertation and some important views. Chapter Two reviews the consumption choice theory,credit risk management theory of commercial banks,asymmetric information and bank credit theory,which lays a theoretical foundation for the following chapters. Chapter Three discusses the economic and financial function of consumption credit from the aspects of consumer,financial institutions and economic development. With the statistical data of 1990-2001 of China,we construct two regression models to analyze the role of consumption on economic development , pointing to the necessities of carrying out consumption credit practice in China from theoretical perspective. In Chapter Four,utilizing the economic quantum models,we study the consumption structure evolution of Urban and rural residents in China and Find that their marginal consumption tendency is declining,thus reaching a conclusion that the space for domestic consumption demand is still large. On the basis of a lot authoritative figures,we describe the current development and restraints in our consumption practice,showing its merits and demerits. Using a simple consumption model,we point out that the interest rate uncertainty in our housing mortgage market restrains the willing of consumers to a certain extent. Chapter Five focuses on consumption credit risk analysis in our market. iiBy applying transaction cost theory,game theory,asymmetric information theory and VAR theory,we survey the consumption credit risk and some classical cases,which lays a solid foundation for chapter six. Chapter Six explores the consumption credit risk management. From the mathematical perspective,we thoroughly analyze some key elements in consumption risk management,including the measurement,credit risk scoring,loss forecasting,risk forecasting mechanism and marketing strategies. On the basis of the previous analysis,in the light of our current situation,Chapter Seven highlights the strategies for further developing consumption credit in China.