The Research On The Risk Management Of Credit Guarantee For Small And Medium-Sized Enterprises

The dissertation is the follow-up study of the Credit Guarantee for Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SMECG) project supported by national social science fund. Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) become more and more important in current society and economics, while lacking of credit and capital is main difficulty in the development of SMEs. Based on the background, an important credit instrument (SMECG), has been established by Chinese government for resolving the difficulty of SMEs's financing. Institution for SMECG (SMECGI) is a new thing in China, its running and development of SMECGI involves system structure, management experience, policy decision, sharing and avoiding risk. Credit guarantee is high-risk industry, while SMECG is much higher risk because of the characteristics of national policy assistance for SMEs. Without effective risk management measure, SMECGI will become SMEs's credit risk aggregated institute, and go into bankruptcy. So, credit guarantee risk management is the key to SMECGI. specializing capability is important for SMECGI effective and healthy running. In order to resolve the important and difficult problem, the primary work in the dissertation includes:(1) The qualitative analysis for fundamental content of the SMECGI risk management. SMECG mechanism involves three participators, which are commercial bank, SMECGinstitute and SMEs. Comparing with the cost of the tripartite-participators transaction and two-participators's, we analysis the demand for credit guarantee management. At the same time, we get the conclusion that SMECG project risk management and project portfolio aggregated risk management are two main tasks for SMECGI. The target together with rule, form of organization, process control, rule and policy of the SMECGI risk management based on the operational mode is provided.(2) Index of the SMECG project risk evaluation was built.As SMECGI taking on the task of supporting SMEs, together with considering SMECGI operation risk, the index selection focuses on SMEs's development, continuous increscent and innovation abability. We use ten indexes to evaluate SMECG project risk such as finance risk, moral risk, and market risk. Every index includes several branch indexes. For imperfect data and qualitative analysis, we adopt D-S Proof Fusion and Group Decision Making Technology to make use of expert knowledge effectively. According to the index system characteristics is complex and correlative, multi-statistical method wasused to reducing the complexity, difficulty and iteration.(3) Model of SMECG project risk evaluation was studied.To the characteristics of SMECG risk evaluation, such as little sample, information diversity and shortage, SMECG risk evaluation model based on Bayesian Networks(BN) was built, which can integrating qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis into one framework. Based on the results of SMECG project risk evaluation, SMECG risk decision criteria has been built. The SMECG project risk evaluation model based on BN has several advantages against other risk evaluation methods, such as less data demand, imperfect data and experts knowledge using, self-learning and more reliable. Based on the SMECG risk evaluation model, Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) was used to build precautionary model for guarantying project, which can evaluate risk dynamically and reduce compensative loss.(4) Portfolio risk measurement and optimization of SMECGI have been studied.We look SMECGI as a whole to evaluate and optimize portfolio risk, which is helpful for the risk management of SMECGI, includes:a. Rate SMECG mechanism operation validity (Economy and Financial).b. Provide the method of valuation the price of the guarantee business, design the strategy. Then we can establish the continuous development pattern for SMECG institute.c. Supply SMECG institute for risk control objective, Criterion that can be measured. (5)From the example shows that the methods of the dissertation can realize theSMECG risk management. Which can advance healthy...