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Research On The Modelling And Applications Of Chinese Provincial Computable General Equilibrium

Posted on:2005-06-08Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z G DuanFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360152469050Subject:Systems Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
After nearly 20-year-adoption of reform and opening policy, the Chinese economyhas been transformed from a close planned system to an open market one. This meansthat the market mechanism is becoming the dominant force in determining economicactivities in China. In the meantime, China is an imbalanced-developed country, theregional discrepancy exists in the aspects of market progress, economic developmentlevel, etc., and the market force may generate different effects in different regions.Besides, the regions confront different opportunities and strategies in the developmentprocess. To the policy analysts, this changing situation may mean more challenges. Thereis a strong need for a quantitative analytical model which can simulate the operation,interaction and transmission mechanism of the economic system to support the analyststo analyze the potential social-economic impact of policy measurement and externalshock. Based on the theoretical foundation of neo-classical general equilibrium and formerChinese CGE models both in domestic and abroad, the objective of this dissertation is toestablish a Chinese provincial-focused CGE model and to apply it to the analysis onmacro impact of regional structural change and inter-regional resource transference. The whole dissertation is organized in 7 chapters. The first two chapters introducethe background and give an overview of literature respectively, while the rest of paper isgenerally divided into two parts: the CGE modeling and case implementation. Chapter 1 is the background introduction, which in the very beginning reviews theChinese economic growth and system change in the last two decades, with the address onthe six serious quality problems in Chinese development. Then the purpose and contentsof the research are briefly introduced. In the literature overview, Chapter 2 first traces thedevelopment of GE theory and CGE solution algorithm history, then the influential CGEmodels emerging in international academic cycle since 1990's are introduced and finallythe various CGE models about China are also summarized in this chapter. Chapter 3 and 4 constitute CGE modeling part. The provincial economic feature andthe structure of the Provincial CGE (PDRCGE) model are fully described in Chapter 3.Considering China is on its transition to the market economy, PDRCGE discards theformer China CGE on the portray of plan/market two-tier system and employs a styliedneoclassic structure in principle. Generally speaking, the PDRCGE contains 2 IIIendogenous regions, 36 production sectors, 6 groups of representative residents, 4primary factors. Besides, it also contains 3 kinds of energy and 6 different pollutants. Inorder to capture the interregional trade, PDRCGE divided the reginal trade into domestictrade and international trade. The model also depicts the labor migration between theregions and industries. Besides, the model adopts two-tier (central and local government)taxation and expenditure system to reflect the actual government revenue andexpenditure situation. All these expressions on the provincial economic feature make itdistinct from the former China-focused CGE models. Since the sound base data play an important role in the numerical specification ofCGE model, the model's dataset—Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) are discussed bothin principle and in practice in Chapter 4. The compilation of the dual provincial SAM,including each data source and the SAM balance skill—RAS and Cross Entropy (CE)method are also presented followingly. Finally, the approach of implementing the CGEmodel by GAMS is also introduced in this part. Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 are model applications in which the Beijing municipal cityand the corresponding Rest of China (ROC) are both chosen as the case areas. Chapter 5investigates the macro effects of structural changes occurring with the economic growth.The objective of this application is to cap...
Keywords/Search Tags:Chinese Provincial Region, Dual-Region CGE, Economic Growth, Structural Change, Energy and Resource Effect Water Resource Transfer, Macro-Economic Impact
PDF Full Text Request
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