Study On Evaluation Of Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity

Based on the reviewed newly research results, this dissertation firstly present the main contents and key issues which should be resolved in the water resources development, and then focus on the issues of water resources carrying capacity .The elemental theory, which the water resources carrying capacity are based on, were analyzed. The water resources-social economy system is a complex-huge system consisting of water resources system , social system, economic system and ecological environment system. According to the analysis of the system and its sub-systems, the relationship between the water resources and the system's components, functions, characteristics were studied and the analysis of water users of sub-systems were emphasized . According to the analysis of definition, meaning and character of water resources carrying capacity, the mostly influencing factors were studied and the evaluation index system was established. The index system was made up of macroscopical indexes (population scale and economy scale), which reflect that whether the water resources carrying capacity is big or small, and integration indexes (carrying capacity exponent and harmony exponent), which reflect the structure state and harmony status of the water resources-society-economy system. These indexes are more universal comparing to the existing methods. Based on the evaluation indexes systems, the mathematics models of the water resources carrying capacity were established and the related arithmetic has been set up. For the single index calculation, the response function was put forward, with which not only the dynamic effect of the single index on the up layer index can be exactly given, but also the index value can be normalized easily and undimensionalized.The reference evaluation region was established in light with the experiences of water resources development and social economy development, with which the sensitivity analysis of the water resources carrying capacity were conducted. The numerical relation between the single index and the indexes of water resources carrying capacity, which supply the scientific foundation for the reasonable development of water resources, planning of industries, development of economy and the sustainable development of social economy under the support of regional water resources sustainable use. The problem that how to compare the water resources carrying capacity among different regions has been resolved as the establishment of the reference evaluation standard values of water resources carrying capacity indexes. As a case study, the water resources carrying capacity in North Huai River Region was studied. Both of the systematic indexes and the models developed in this dissertation were calibrated and testified with the data of current year and it is found that the results were satisfactory, In light with the calculation of water resources carrying capacity in different design years, the regional social economy development planning, the regulation of the water resources distribution, the methods and approaches to enhance the water resources carrying capacity were laid out.