| The process of Economic Integration accelerates the merge of different countries in order to maximize the benefit as the result of best allocation of resources. January 1st,2010, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area officially starts and initiates. China-ASEAN Free Trade Area is the third largest economic integration organization around the world and is also the one which contains largest number of population. It is constructed by mainly developing countries, including almost 1.9 billion customers, and its aggregate GDP reaches 6 trillion and 4.5 trillion dollars total trade volume. The construction of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will foster the regional economic integration development. This is the first FTA for China which plays an important part of strategy of China's participation in regional economic cooperation. The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area could accumulate the experience for other FTA organization negotiation2009 global financial crisis leads to the dump of China's export, which shows the weakness of single and concentrated export destination distribution. Moreover, the over reliance on intensive margin of trade growth of unreasonable trade construction make the trade income is vulnerable to fluctuation and business cycle. In addition, solely increasing the trade income by intensive margin—the increase of trading volume and quantity could deteriorate the trade condition. China is a big exporter of commodities, in order to take great advantage in global competition, gain steady increase in trade income and improve trade condition, the measures taken by the regional economic integration is necessary and will be helpful. Since ASEAN is an important exporting destination to China, the construction of Free Trade Area could be helpful to realize the diversification of export destination, improving the model of trade growth. How to utilize the opportunity of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area offers, accelerate the change of China's export construction; how to utilize the measure of trade liberalization by the sign of bilateral agreement in order to guarantee the steady increase of China's export income is what we focused in this thesis.The thesis mainly contains six chapters. Chapter 1 is the introduction, which mainly introduce the background of the thesis, the core problem need to be solved and the analysis framework, the innovation and methods also be include in this part. Chapter 2 reviews the literature and summarizes the relative theory, including the traditional trade creation and trade diversification effects. The review especially focuses on the firm heterogeneity trade model which lay a ground for the later discussion and analysis. Chapter 3 conducts the fact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area bilateral trade. Change of trade growth, trade construction and trade direction after China-ASEAN Free Trade Area could be detailed described by statistical data. Especially this chapter focuses the discussion of the fact that China's export to ASEAN countries showing the characteristic of two margin—intensive margin and extensive margin. The pattern of trade growth reveals different feature among trade partners and throughout the discussion time span. Chapter 4 offers theoretical model supporting the whole study. The heterogeneity firm trade model combines the micro-level differences between exporting firms with macro-level national characteristic. The variable trade cost,fixed trade cost and the index of firm heterogeneity are all taken into consideration for explanation of extensive margin of trade growth. Chapter 5 utilize the STATA,EVIEWS and ACCESS the application software and panel econometric method to do the empirical test. The empirical study shows the test results are highly unanimous with the judgment and conclusion summarized by the statistics analysis. The study estimates the effect of two margins by different influencing factors individually. Chapter 6 basically makes a comment and evaluates the achievement after the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. The author makes a clear judgment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area developing pattern and points out the promotion for trade facilitation negotiation could be a key issue for its long-term steady development and improvements. Relating measures should be taken into force in order to foster the bilateral cooperation further. |
