Research On The Control Methods Of Operational Risks For Power Grid Company Under Energy Conservation And Emission Reduction

In 21 century, there is great heat on environment pollution and greenhouse effect as the global economic developes, and energy crises and envirionmental stresses have become the focal point problem. As one of the major productors and consumers of energy,China's primary energy reserves is lower than world's level, while its energy demand is increasing, as a result there is severe energy crises and envirionmental stresses for china's economy sustainable development. Energy conservation and emission reduction will be a significant method to relilve the problem, and Electry power industry,70% of which is thermal power, is one of the highest energy consumption industries as almost one half of the whole country's coal consumption is consumed by this industry every year, and plays a important role for the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies.Power Grid Company, as the intermediate link of electricity saling and generating, faces management risks caused by energy conservation and emission reduction measures carried out in operation links of power-purchasing,power-saling and investment of the power grid, and meanwhile has important influences for the successful actualization of the polices. The paper does reserches on the management risks of grid's power-purchasing, power sale and investment caused by energy conservation and emission reduction polices. The main finished work and innovations of this paper is as follows:Firstly, general risk management theory in introduced. The characteristics and classifications of the risk event, the developing stages of the risk management, and the theories of Power Grid Companies'risk identification, risk assessment and risk control are illustrated. Then the polices of energy conservation and emission reduction in power industry are summarized.Secondly, manegement risks of grid's power purchase under the policies of energy conservation and emission reduction measures are researched. Under the dispatching policy for energy conservation, Grid's power purchasing risks form different typies of power inside the province and different regional distributions are evaluated. On the base of dispatching optimization model for energy conservation, measurement models for the power-purchasing average price changes caused by retired units, power-purchaing costs changes caused by new units and changes of units'utilization hours are built. On the base of dispatching optimization model for energy conservation in regional grid, measurement models for power-purchasing costs in different purchasing proportion of the power inside and outside the province are built. The chain for risk transitivity from coal price, power-generating costs, power-purchasing costs,to the income and profit of the power grid company are found, and measurement and control strategies of the coal price changes risks are researched. Return-risks caused by grid integration of the wind power and PV power are measured.Thirdly, management risks and benefit of energy conservation and emission reduction in grid's power sale link are researched. Measurement models for the influence of TOU price to the average price and control models by constructing the power generating linking TOU price are built. the influence of the electricity prices and quantities of different classifications to the electricity-saling average price are analyzed and their influence indicators and synthetical indicator are estimated. changes of Power factor adjustment charge are resolved and relationship of line loss and profit are analyzed. Besides, measurement models for the risk of direct power supply to large power end-users, and for the risk from captive power plant are built, and the compensation charged model for captive power plant is also given. on the base of the quantitative analysis of Power grid companies'sale risks, including TOU tariff risks, electricity categories tariff risk, Power factor adjustment charge risk, line loss risk, large power end-users and captive power plant risk, and benefit of energy conservation and emission reduction, this paper puts forward appropriate control strategies for all risks.Lastly, management risks of grid's investment are researched. Power grid company's profit model, equity fund banlance model and liability model are built to measure the investment ability, the investment timing is measured by the indicator of capacity load ratio, and the grid development coordination risks are analyzed. On the base of the models and analysis, the paper gives the risk control strategies for the investment of the power grid company, and provides theoretical reference to the grid investments such as investment plan, UHV investment and so on.