Risk Decision-making Of Supply Chain Considering Electricity-Coal Price Linking And Electricity-carbon Price Correlating

Under the open market environment in the future,the price of coal,carbon and electricity have a certain degree of volatility and the electricity price will influenced by the price of coal and carbon,due to the impact of market competition,government policies and other external factors.So its market decision-making will be affected by the risk loss which is confronted by the electricity supplier and coal supplier of the energy supply chain in the market decision-making.In order to comprehensively consider the risks faced by coal and electricity suppliers and to improve their overall income under the framework of medium-long term market.Then a bilevel risk decision-making model in supply chain which is considered the price linking of electricity and coal and its randomness is presented.Among,The minimum risk loss of power supply is the upper level optimization model,and the minimum risk loss of coal supply is the lower level optimization model,and the coal price in the contract market and its supply(purchase)coal ratio for coal and electricity suppliers make the upper and lower level optimization model interrelated.The results show that The bilevel risk decision-making model can consider comprehensively the overall risk and improve the overall revenue of supply chain,and the electricity supplier economic decision and the coal price in the contract market will be influenced by the different weighted coefficient of the mixed distribution,and different confidence level(risk aversion level)will affect its risk decision-making.According to the bilevel risk decision-making model of coal and electric supply chain,electricity suppliers can plan their expected power generation in the medium-long term and make reasonable market bidding decision based on the relevant market information.However,Carbon price and electricity price are bound together and stochastic under the influence of external factors.So,the price randomness of carbon and electricity along with their correlation should be taken into consideration to form the bidding model for generation companies.Then,a CVaR-based bidding model which considers the price randomness of electricity and carbon along with theircorrelation is proposed.Test results show that considering the price randomness of both electricity and carbon as well as its correlation relationship is more in line with the electricity company's requirement of increasing revenue and reducing risk,and Preference parameter values for risk aversion will affect the degree of risk aversion,so as to adjust its trading in the contract market and the spot market.Coal electricity supply chain mainly consider the price linking of electricity and coal and its randomness,when their decide the price of coal and its supply(purchase)coal ratio and the expected power generation.Then,according to the expected power generation,electricity supplier mainly consider the price randomness of carbon and electricity along with their correlation in market bidding decision.But,the above only consider the impact of the risk in the medium and long term market.So,on the basis of this,we need to consider the impact of short-term market on its decision,which can be further adjusted.