Research On The Relationship Between The Endogenous Structure Of Human And Physical Capital Supply And The Economic Growth In China

According to statistics, the yearly average growth rate of GDP in China raised from 6.1% during 1953-1978 to 9.8% during 1978-2007, far higher than world average, 3.3%. It also toppled the record of 29 continuous years of 9% average GDP growth rate in Japan. The economic growth in China is so significant that the research into the enigma behind it has been a hot topic since the end of 20th century. What are the bases for the fast and continuous economical growth? Is it sustainable? So many studies had focused on the impact of the total supply of the factors, and only a small number of researchers try to answer those questions from the point of the structure of the factors supply, but their understandings of the connotation of the structure of the factors supply were not thorough and comprehensive enough, which made their analysis on the enigma behind the economic growth in China were not thorough and comprehensive enough yet.Therefore, in order to understand the enigma of China's economic growth, we should research into the endogenous structure of factors supply whose features determine the growth's sustainability and speed. The endogenous structure of factors supply is the structure of factors input that determining the production process and output characteristics endogenously inside economic system. As the human and physical capital are the most important two factors, therefore, the endogenous structure of factors supply, in this dissertation, refers to the endogenous structure of the human and physical capital supply. And first, this paper defined the connotation of the endogenous structure of the human and material capital supply which are the jointly endogenous structure and the stock structure and the industrial distribution structure. Second, this paper analyzed the relationship between the endogenous structure of the human and physical capital supply and the economic growth in China. In this way, this paper extended and intensified the way to analyze the economic growth from the factors supply side.The third chapter theoretically analyze the jointly endogenous structure of the factor supply that the long-term growth depend on and empirically built an SVAR model to analyze the relationship between the jointly endogenous structure and the economic growth, and the conclusions are, the human accumulation has positive externality on the physical capital accumulation but the latter has negative externality on the former, which caused the increase of the human capital accumulation has been restricted to some extent. The fourth chapter theoretically analyzed the relationship between the stock structure and the economic growth based on the increasing return to scale production function, and the conclusions are, the stock structure variableφhas positive effect on the output growth. Since the rise ofφmeans the bigger accumulation of the physical capital comparing to that of the human capital, it shows the reason why the factors supply characterized by the physical capital expansion can promote the output growth so fast during the Reform and Opening period in China. And the result of the empirical analysis is accord with the theoretical analysis, but it shows that the impact of the stock structure element imposed on the output growth has decreased since the end of the eighties of the last century. The fifth chapter analyzed the relationship between the industrial distribution structure and the economic growth based on the stepwise regression method and the state space model, and the conclusions indicate that the industrial distribution structure elements only contribute 10% to the total output growth, and particularly, the elasticity of the industrial distribution structure of the physical capital supply to output was even negative.All in all, the empirical analysis show that total factors supply, especially the increase of the accumulation of the physical capital, were the main force that driving the economic growth in China during the last 3 decades, and the endogenous structure of the human and physical capital supply had laid some restraints on the growth. Looking into the causes, the unbalanced accumulation of the human and physical capital was the primary cause that those restraints came into being. Nowadays, growth theories generally consider the human capital to be the momentum of economic growth, which indicate that the current economic growth model China has been adopted can not be sustainable in long time. So, the human resources development and the human capital accumulation will be key elements that the Chinese economic growth could keep up a steady increase and catch up with the developed countries in future. But, the human resources development and the human capital accumulation should not go exclusively after the increase in quantity, but should adhere to the human and physical capital match regularities. Therefore, this paper suggest that the formulation of the macro-policy of the human resource development should aim to optimize the endogenous structure of the human and the physical capital supply to adjust the current total and structure of the human capital accumulation.