Beijing Integrated Plan Model For Renewable Energy And Policy Research

All over the world, making a scientific and rational renewable energy planning is an important policy tools to develop renewable energy ,The researchers usually provide decision support of the government by energy systems analysis .Energy systems is a complex non-linear system, At the same time Influenced and restricted by economy development,transformation of social system,change of Population,technology progress and so on, traditional energy model for systematic analysis often resulting in distortion because of failing to displays policy variables timely This kind of problem is very common to new energy that experience quickly change of technology, cost and business models ,so it is urgent to development new tools and methods. In the background of fossil energy shortage and environmental constraints, The government is urgent to use energy system analyze and guide policy making. Especially at present, our country is at the development stage in which technology and fund are in scarcity, variables of policies become much more and economy transformation is accelerating, in order to avoid economic loss because of decision mismaking,to formulate reasonable goals and route of renewable energy development become very important.The central government proposed that by 2020 the non-fossil energy reach 15%, In this background,our study formulate objective function with minimum policy cost and technologies database of renewable energy, and take LEAPME and SSAGE model as our main tools,we develop comprehensive policy analysis and evaluation tools of renewable energy--LEAP-Beijing model ,which is applicable to local government of developing countries similar to Beijing.At the same time ,we adopt the Delphi method, Taking 2005 as the base year, strengthening the communication to policymakers, take the local government's characteristics of resources constraint and capital shortage into concern,we extract three scenes: policy driver scenes (A), powerfully driving policy scenes (B) and reference scenes (C),we adopt LEAP-Beijing to simulate different target and path of New energy development in Beijing,and provide suggestions about goals and policy during 12th. The major innovations of this study as follows:1. Taking minimum of government investment cost as local government'sobjective function of renewable energy development creatively,we also use related theory of energy science, economics, environmental science, sociology and the management science,on the basis of LEAP model and MESSAGE model,we firstly develop a quantifiable and evaluable analysis tools -- --comprehensive planning model of renewable energy,which is exclusively fited to local governments of developing countries; 2. Taking Beijing's economic and social development trend into attention,we successfully operate the LEAP-Beijing (comprehensive planning model of renewable energy to Beijing),also,it is adopted by local government(Beijing municipal government)in making 12th Five Year Plan of New energy development firstly, At the same time,it also offer other provinces and cities in our country referential and quantitative theoretical analysis method in doing research about renewable energy planning regionally.3. Combined with currently existing key projects of new energy, new energy technology database, based on the current technical situation, has been initially established using Structure Query Language.4. Methodology has initially established based on scenario analysis aimed at local governments, using Delphi Method.The finding finally points out that, though the introduction of new energy from the outside will sharply lower the marginal cost in developing new energy for local governments and increase the proportion of new energy in energy consumption, Beijing government should focus more on the development of core technologies and on the enhancement of core competence with its"Humanities Beijing, Hi-tech Beijing and Green Beijing"strategy, as imposed to higher proportion of new energy and renewable energy.Therefore, for Beijing government, the reasonable proportion of new energy and renewable energy accounting for the whole cost are proposed at 6-7%; the government should strongly tap related technologies, including solar thermal-ray technology, Industrial zone photovoltaic power station technology. Roof, Shallow geothermal sewage-source heat pump technology and Large methane gas centralized supply and garbage power generation; furthermore, combined with industry orientation for the capital, enhancing core competence for the establishment of technical innovation as principal status in enterprise, consummating switching mechanisms for major scientific results, based on demand-oriented policy, Actively constructing good social atmosphere, Formulating green energy identification system and vigorously introducing high quality talent, are also new energy policies to be further perfected.