Research On Investment Project Individual Decision-making Based On Learning Behavior

Based on the theoretical review of individual investment decisions, this thesis analyzes the traditional concept of utility, proposes the concept of Estimate Utility and puts forwards the general and specific forms of Estimate Utility function. Estimate Utility is a relative concept that it changes with the choice of frame of reference. Estimate Utility depends upon the investors'senses of worth that the investors'value orientation decide the weight of Estimate Utility function——the transfer coefficient of psychological feelings. Based on the concept of Estimate Utility, the decision criterion under uncertainty becomes to be the choice of the project or portfolio whose estimate utility is the largest. This thesis also explains some issues of other decision-making theories using the concept of Estimate Utility, and proves that the investors is bounded rational rather than fully rational from the perspective of Estimate Utility.The investors' learning behaviors decide their abilities of predicting the project information and the transfer coefficient of psychological feelings used in decisions. This thesis studies the processes of investors'decision-making from the view of the learning behaviors of individual investors, and proposes the individual investor's decision-making model based on the learning behavior. In reality, the practice of investors'investment decisions is not a one-time act, but a several times cycle. Through studying on the deviated paths which may occur during the investors'decision-making cycle, this thesis proposes the correction model of investors'learning behavior which can help investors identify the key factors in learning behavior and investment decisions.Different from the traditional concept of adaptive learning, this thesis presents a new concept of adaptive learning and individual investors'behavior of adaptive learning has been defined. The characteristics of investors'adaptive learning behavior and the factors that influence the adaptive learning have been described, and the distinction between creative learning and adaptive learning has been made. Good learning behavior can effectively improve the predictive ability of investors , change and adjust the transfer coefficient of psychological feelings in Estimate Utility function, and make right decisions good for future when update the knowledge base. This learning behavior is adaptive learning behavior of investors whose aim is to adapt to the environmental changes and make harmonization of the investment decision-making practices and changes in the external environment. Finally, this thesis builds the system of investors'adaptive learning behavior and puts forward some effective strategies to promote adaptive learning behavior.This thesis is part of the research on investment project economic appraisal based on bounded rationality which is funded by National Science Foundation (No.70572043).