Research On Dual-sourcing Supply Mode With Considering Risk

With the globalization of commercial economy and the mutual penetration of socio-economic problems, supply and demand problem is more and more complex in the increasingly "lean","agile" supply network. The increasing manufacturing,distribution and production activities are exposed to the risk event, more and more. In order to copy with possible interruptions of production fluctuations and maintain supply cooperation stabilization, manufacturers (buyers) in supply network tend to use dual-sourcing supply mode. This mode is an important issue included in supply network management, and an important way that response to risks and uncertainties. And it is also an effective method to decrease supply network vulnerability.This paper analyzed supplier selection under dual-source supply mode considered the risk factors influence, single-source/dual-source decision making problem based on interrupt risk, dual sourcing analysis model considering the risk of interruption risk and uncertain production and income distribution dual-sourcing model considering the risk.The supplier selection in dual-source supply model is commercial activity which embedded in the supply network environment, and is also the basic problem of sound dual-sourcing operation under supply network environment. When consider supply selection under dual-sourcing environment, we should first apply social network analysis framework to analysis changes in supply network centrality, which measure influence of supplier node to vulnerability of supply networks, according to the size of influence the underlying supplier to the vulnerability of supply network, choose the larger influence size suppliers of dual-source supply model as an alternative set of suppliers. Then, through the selection criteria that multiple decision-makers who consider the risk of property, determine the alternative objects, sort preference relation, apply nonlinear programming model based on different preference relations to get the sequence and weight of alternative object sort.Then, use imputation sort based on fuzzy preference relations ranking method, fixed the merits assessment of combination of any two alternative suppliers, decide the optimal combination of two suppliers under the dual-source supply mode consider the risks, combing with alternative suppliers and the first sort and the order of ranking weight. Single source-dual source decision making problem based on disruption risk is problem how to select between single sourcing and dual-sourcing decision making under disruption risk. By analyzing when facing the influence of supply relationships disruptions, how to make decision according with the probability model, and determine the optimal ratio of demand for quota between the two suppliers under dual-source supply mode, explain the impact that manufacturer order allocation, reserve pricing on threshold of risk probability under single and dual sourcing supply interruption mode selection, point out different meaning of upper and lower limits of critical threshold.The dual-sourcing supply model under disruption risk and production uncertainties was analyzed. When the market demand is deterministic in dual-sourcing mode, this paper analyze how to determine optimal order quantity from backup supplier based on disruption risk and yield risk of the main supplier and achieve the optimal buyback price with backup supplier. The impact of disruption risk probability and standard deviation on the optimal yield order quantity and optimal buy-back prices were analyzed. Association and change relationship of these system variables were explained.The problem of profit distribution in dual-sourcing supply with risk plays an important role in maintaining the stability of dual-sourcing supply. The paper elaborated the methods to distribute profit reasonable in dual-sourcing supply process with cooperative game. Shapley value based on risk factors is to quantify the risk of each partner and determine the risk factors of each partner by multi-objective evaluation and decision method to improve the "average" distribution profit of each partner. Shapley value based on disruption risk is to analyze the cooperation motivation of each partner under the influence of disruption risk and put forward the redistribution scheme after the co-leader considers his own profit and stability of cooperation. Two profit redistribution schemes considering risk are different in risk measurement and expression, and also different in definition of supplier's risk nature. The former of the two suppliers are homogeneous, the latter are heterogeneous.Dual-sourcing supply mode management considering risk is a subclass of risk management issues in supply chain network. The topics discussed in this paper are focus on supplier selection, supply mode selection and profit distribution, and can't represent other studies of risk management in dual-sourcing supply network. There are still many issues worthy of further study in dual-sourcing supply mode management considering risk.